San Jose Earthquakes look to snap slide against red hot St. Louis City SC

PayPal Park hosts a clash of contrasting form in MLS, as San Jose Earthquakes look to halt their recent slide against a St. Louis City SC side riding the best stretch of its season. Both clubs are fighting to lock down their spot in the Western Conference, though they arrive from very different places in the standings.

How the teams arrive

San Jose Earthquakes sit in third place in the West with 33 points, the product of 10 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in 18 matches, with 37 goals scored and 24 allowed. Still, their immediate form is a concern: over the last five matches they've collected three losses, one draw and just a single win. The home side averages 1.88 goals scored per game and 1.22 allowed, with Preston Judd as the offensive focal point on 11 goals, and they tend to do their damage late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

St. Louis City SC, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. Sitting seventh with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in 18 games), the visitors arrive full of confidence after four wins and a draw in their last five outings, with no losses in that stretch. Despite that form, the attack remains the soft spot: just 0.88 goals per game on the road, against 1.56 allowed, with Jeong Sang-Bin, Simon Becher and Eduard Löwen leading the scoring column, each with two goals. The gap between the two clubs in the standings sits at 7 points in San Jose's favor.

Head-to-head history

The recent head-to-head clearly favors St. Louis City SC: of the 7 matches played between these two, the visitors have won 6, San Jose just 1, with no draws. The goal difference is lopsided too, 16 for St. Louis against 7 for San Jose, a number that sits at odds with the favoritism the odds are giving this particular matchup.

Probable lineups

As a probable, unconfirmed lineup, San Jose Earthquakes are expected to go with Angus Gunn in goal; a back line of Reid Roberts, Benji Kikanovic, Daniel Munie and Jamar Ricketts; Beau Leroux, Ronaldo Vieira and Nick Fernandez in midfield; and an attacking trio of Ousseni Bouda, Preston Judd and Timo Werner.

On the visiting side, St. Louis City SC could field Roman Bürki between the posts, with Timo Baumgartl, Dante Polvara and Lukas MacNaughton across the back; Daniel Edelman, Tomas Totland, Chris Durkin and Conrad Wallem in midfield; and Simon Becher, Marcel Hartel and Eduard Löwen up top.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' own model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 51% chance of winning, a number that reflects some edge but is far from a lopsided favorite, especially given how well the visitors are playing right now. A draw comes in at 27% and St. Louis City SC at 22%. Expected goals also point to a tightly matched game in terms of chances created: 1.72 for the home side and 1.05 for the visitors, an estimated total of 2.77 goals. These figures are our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a locked-in forecast. Other calculated trends point to a 39% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 52% chance both teams find the net.

Looking ahead

San Jose needs to turn around a rough patch against an opponent on a clear upswing, albeit one with a limited attack. The recent history favors St. Louis, but home advantage and the Earthquakes' solid scoring average at PayPal Park could tip the balance in a matchup that promises to be closer than the table suggests.