San Jose Rallies for a Draw Against Eastern Conference Leader Nashville SC on Judd's Header

Nashville SC arrived at PayPal Park as the Eastern Conference leader and left with a 1-1 draw that probably leaves a bitter taste. San Jose Earthquakes, who had to come from behind, found a fair reward in the second half thanks to a header from Preston Judd that let them split the points in an MLS match that produced more home chances than the final score suggests.

The first half was a one-way street for San Jose in terms of volume of play, though without reward. Beau Leroux and Preston Judd gave early warning signs: in the 7th minute Judd grazed the crossbar with a header, and in the 18th he rattled the left post with a shot from the flank. The Earthquakes kept pressing, but Nashville SC struck with the kind of efficiency usually reserved for teams that don't need to create much to do damage. In the 33rd minute, after an initial effort that Hany Mukhtar had sent just wide moments earlier, Mukhtar himself popped up again, this time with an angled shot from the right that found the top corner for the 0-1.

San Jose went into halftime trailing despite having been the sharper team, and the second half opened with the same script: more possession and more attempts from the home side (Löwen, Vieira and Leroux all tried their luck from outside the box without success) against a Nashville side that sat back and waited for its moment. The equalizer came in the 69th minute: a free kick was played into the box, Eduard Löwen delivered a precise cross, and Preston Judd, once again, headed it into the top left corner to make it 1-1, the final score. Nashville responded almost immediately through Elias Saad, who tested the keeper a couple of times after coming on, but couldn't restore the lead.

What the Numbers Say

The stats back up the sense of a match dominated in volume by the home side, though not in efficiency. San Jose finished with more shots, but Nashville was sharper on target and controlled the ball a bit more.

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots backs up San Jose's territorial edge: 1.085 compared to Nashville's 0.345, a gap that explains why the draw sits more comfortably with the Earthquakes than with the visitors, even though it was Nashville that took the lead on the scoreboard.

The result also runs counter to our preview projections: we gave Nashville SC a 50% chance of winning, versus just 23% for San Jose and 27% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.72 for the visitors against 1.09 for the home side. What actually played out on the field was the exact opposite in terms of chance creation: San Jose was the more dangerous team, and also the one that needed to come from behind.

The Standings Picture

Nashville SC came in as leader of the Eastern Conference with 67 points from 30 matches played (20 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses), a goal differential of +41 that speaks to its regular season. The draw in San Jose doesn't change that commanding position, but it does puncture a sense of dominance that B.J. Callaghan's side wasn't able to impose on the field this time.

For Bruce Arena and his San Jose Earthquakes, the point carries another kind of value: having been clearly superior in shots and xG against the conference leader, and having found the equalizer through a poacher's goal that crowns a standout individual performance from Preston Judd, who scored the equalizing goal in addition to two clear chances in the first half. A match that leaves more questions for Nashville about its finishing than certainties for San Jose, who are left with the feeling they deserved a bit more.