Santos Laguna hosts Guadalajara in search of first win, Chivas arrive as favorites

Santos Laguna hosts Guadalajara at the Estadio Corona in a Liga MX matchup pitting two teams with very different needs but equally pressing results. While the Warriors are desperate for their first taste of joy this tournament, Chivas want to build on an uneven start that has at least brought some points.

How both teams arrive

The outlook for Santos Laguna is worrying: the club sits in 17th place in the standings with a record of three games played, zero wins, zero draws and three losses, having scored just 2 goals and allowed 7. Their scoring average is 0.67 goals per game, while they're conceding 2.33 per match, and they haven't managed a single clean sheet all season. Looking at their form over the last five matches, the team has piled up four losses against just one win, the most recent result, which could be a sign of a turnaround or simply an isolated data point. Lucas Di Yorio and Eduardo Aguirre are the club's top scorers, though each has just one goal in the tournament. Their most productive stretch offensively has come between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Guadalajara, meanwhile, sits in 12th place with a record of one win, one draw and one loss in three matches, good for 4 points, with 2 goals scored and 3 allowed. Their scoring average matches that of Santos exactly, 0.67 per game, but defensively they've been sturdier, conceding 1 goal per match and keeping a clean sheet in 33% of their games. Over their last five matches, Chivas have posted two wins, one draw and two losses, a more balanced record than their upcoming opponent. Roberto Alvarado leads the team with 2 goals, and Guadalajara tends to find the net between the 61st and 75th minutes.

Head to head history

The recent head to head history clearly favors Guadalajara. Across the 8 matches on record, Chivas have won 4, Santos Laguna 2, with 2 draws. The goal difference is telling: 11 goals for Guadalajara against 5 for Santos, a number that reinforces the idea that the Jalisco club has had the upper hand in this matchup.

Probable lineups

As an estimated lineup, Santos Laguna could send out Carlos Acevedo in goal, with a back line made up of Franco Pardo, Felipe Sanchez and Emmanuel Echeverria. The midfield would feature Mauricio Cuevas, Fran Villalba, Salvador Mariscal, Ezequiel Bullaude and Aldo Lopez, with Eduardo Aguirre and Ramiro Sordo up top.

Guadalajara, based on its recent tendencies, would likely start Raul Rangel between the posts, a defense of Luis Romo, Daniel Aguirre and Diego Campillo, a midfield of Ruben Gonzalez, Bryan Gonzalez, Richard Ledezma, Brian Gutierrez and Jordan Carrillo, and Roberto Alvarado and Armando Gonzalez leading the attack.

Odds and context

According to our model, the odds for this match break down as follows:

The model has Guadalajara as the favorite at 51%, compared to 20% for Santos Laguna and 29% for a draw. While there's a clear lean toward the visitors, it's far from an overwhelming favorite, and the draw still carries considerable weight in the forecast. Expected goals, our own estimate based on this season's trends, put Santos at 0.84 and Guadalajara at 1.50, for a combined total of 2.34, a figure that lines up with the trend that only 33% of matches like this one go over 2.5 total goals. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 22%, a low number suggesting a game where at least one side is unlikely to offer much on the attacking end. It's worth noting these figures are our own estimate and shouldn't be read as betting odds.

With Santos Laguna desperate to pick up its first win of the tournament and Guadalajara looking to build on its better recent form, the Estadio Corona will host a match where the host's urgency runs into Chivas' slight statistical edge.