Seattle Sounders seek redemption against a red-hot Chicago Fire side

Seattle Sounders FC comes in having lost three of its last five games and needs a statement result at Lumen Field. Standing in the way is Chicago Fire FC, which arrives in the Pacific Northwest sitting third in the East and carrying the better recent form of the two sides: three wins, a draw and a loss in its last five outings. The matchup is for MLS play, and while the standings suggest a wide gap between the two clubs, this one looks a lot closer than it appears on paper.

In league play this season, Seattle has gone 7-4-9 across 20 matches, scoring 22 goals and allowing 27, for an average of 1.556 goals scored and 1.778 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 11% of its outings. The Sounders do most of their damage late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Chicago, meanwhile, boasts a sturdier record: 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in its own 20 matches, with 37 goals for and 26 against, good for 1.7 scored and 1.5 allowed per game, and clean sheets in 20% of its games. The Fire's most productive stretch comes a bit earlier, between the 61st and 75th minutes.

In the East standings, Chicago sits third with 36 points, while Seattle is 13th in the overall table. The gap looks stark on paper, though it's worth remembering these are two different tables within MLS, and tonight's match may not fully reflect that divide.

The head to head history isn't lopsided either: of the 8 meetings between the two clubs, Chicago has won 4, Seattle has won 3 and one ended level, with the Fire scoring 14 goals to the Sounders' 12. It's an evenly matched series on the scoreboard, which stands in contrast to the current gap in the standings.

Likely Lineups

Seattle's projected lineup, which carries low confidence in our estimate, points to Andrew Thomas in goal, a back line of Kalani Kossa-Rienzi, Paul Rothrock, Nouhou Tolo, Jackson Ragen, Antino Lopez and Stuart Hawkins, and a midfield featuring Peter Kingston, Sebastian Gomez, Albert Rusnák and Snyder Brunell. Rothrock, in fact, is the club's top scorer with 5 goals, followed by Rusnák and Cristian Roldan with 3 apiece.

On Chicago's side, with medium confidence in the projection, Chris Brady is expected in goal, a defense made up of Joel Waterman, Andrew Gutman, Jack Elliott and Jonathan Dean, a midfield of Anton Salétros, Djé D'Avilla and Sergio Oregel Jr., and an attacking trio of Robert Lewandowski, Philip Zinckernagel and Puso Dithejane. Zinckernagel tops the Fire's scoring chart with 5 goals, trailed by Maren Haile-Selassie and Robin Lod with 4 each.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built on the season's trends, paints a fairly even picture:

Seattle carries a slight edge despite its spot in the standings, and a draw can't be ruled out at 27%. Our expected goals figures are just as tight: 1.61 for the home side and 1.41 for the visitors, a combined 3.02 that lines up with the broader trends, since we project more than 2.5 goals in 63% of scenarios and both teams scoring in 70%. Worth repeating: these are our own projections, not betting odds.

With Seattle in need of results and Chicago rolling in on its best recent form, Lumen Field should serve up a back and forth affair, with goal chances on both ends.