Seattle Sounders FC host Austin FC in must-win Western Conference basement battle

Lumen Field hosts a direct battle at the bottom of the Western Conference in MLS, where Seattle Sounders FC and Austin FC are both looking to climb away from the uncomfortable end of the table. Neither side is in good form right now, but both need points urgently as the regular season enters its final stretch.

How the teams arrive

Seattle Sounders FC sit in 11th place in the West with 24 points, the product of 7 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in 18 games played, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. Their recent run is a concern: over the last five matches they have managed just one win against four defeats. The home side averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, and has kept a clean sheet in only 13% of its matches. Seattle tends to find its goals late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Paul Rothrock is the club's top scorer with 5 goals, followed by Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnák with 3 apiece.

Austin FC, in 14th place, has a tighter record: 4 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in 19 games, with 23 goals scored and 38 conceded, the worst goal difference of the two clubs. Their recent form shows a bit more life (two wins, one draw and two losses in the last five), but the defense remains a serious problem: Austin has yet to record a single clean sheet all season and concedes an average of 2.91 goals per game, against just 1.01 scored. The visitors tend to score early, within the first 15 minutes, with Myrto Uzuni (6 goals) and Christian Ramirez (5 goals) leading the attack. The gap between the two clubs in the standings stands at 7 points in Seattle's favor.

Head to head

Across the 8 previous meetings between these two clubs, Seattle Sounders FC has won 4, there has been 1 draw and Austin FC has won 3. In terms of goals, the home side has scored 11 and the visitors 8, a slight historical edge that lines up with what this season's numbers show.

Possible lineups

As a probable XI, with low reliability, Seattle could field Andrew Thomas in goal, a back line of Nouhou Tolo, Kalani Kossa-Rienzi, Stuart Hawkins and Jackson Ragen, and a midfield of Albert Rusnák, Paul Rothrock, Snyder Brunell, Peter Kingston and Jesús Ferreira, with Osaze De Rosario up top as the attacking reference.

Austin FC, with a medium reliability estimate, would line up with Brad Stuver between the posts, Guilherme Biro, Oleksandr Svatok and Mateja Djordjevic in defense, Jon Gallagher, Joseph Rosales, Besard Sabovic and Ilie Sánchez in midfield, and an attacking trio of Myrto Uzuni, Ervin Torres and Brandon Vázquez.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' own model (not to be confused with betting odds) gives the home side a clear but not overwhelming edge, with a 56% chance of victory, while the draw and an away win are tied at 22% each. Estimated expected goals sit at 2.26 for Seattle and 1.38 for Austin, a combined 3.64 that supports the 70% likelihood of the match going over 2.5 total goals. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 45%.

With two shaky defenses and inconsistent attacks on both sides, this Lumen Field clash looks set to be an open, high scoring affair. Seattle Sounders FC enters as the favorite according to the numbers, but Austin FC, badly in need of results, is not coming to give anything away.