St. Louis City SC visits a New York Red Bulls side in need of points

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a matchup of sharp contrasts: a New York Red Bulls team fighting to climb out of the lower half of the Eastern Conference table, and a St. Louis City SC squad riding high with its sights set on the top spots. It's an MLS clash that carries more weight than it might appear at first glance for both sides of the standings.

The Red Bulls sit eighth in the East with 33 points from 26 matches played (9 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses), with a goal difference of -14 after scoring 34 and conceding 48. Recent form doesn't do much to settle the nerves: over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, though they closed that stretch with back to back victories. Some momentum, though not quite enough yet to break free in the standings.

On the other side, St. Louis City SC sits third with 46 points (12 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses), 45 goals scored and 36 allowed. There, the current form backs it up: four wins and a draw in their last five matches, with no losses in that stretch. They arrive in New Jersey on a roll.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs based on venue, though these figures come from a different sample and not the tournament as a whole. Playing at home in the 2026 MLS season, across 12 matches, the Red Bulls average 1.495 goals scored and 1.907 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 8% of those matches, and their most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. St. Louis, on the road and across 13 matches in that same sample, averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.46 allowed, also with clean sheets 8% of the time, and tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Scorers to watch

Within that same venue based sample, Julian Hall stands out as the top offensive threat for the home side with 10 goals, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba (7) and Eric Choupo-Moting (3). For the visitors, Simon Becher leads the way with 8 goals, with Daniel Edelman and Rafael Navarro contributing 4 apiece.

Possible lineups

Based on recent call ups, the Red Bulls' likely starting eleven would have Ethan Horvath in goal, a back line of Julian Bazan, Dylan Nealis, Matthew Dos Santos and Justin Che, a midfield of Adri Mehmeti, Ronald Donkor and Mohammed Sofo, and up front Cade Cowell alongside Julian Hall and Jorge Ruvalcaba.

St. Louis City SC, meanwhile, could field Roman Burki in goal, Timo Baumgartl, Dante Polvara and Jaziel Orozco across the back, a crowded midfield with Chris Durkin, Alexandru Matan, Tomas Totland, Conrad Wallem and Daniel Edelman, and a front two of Jeong Sang-Bin and Simon Becher. In both cases these lineups are projections, not officially confirmed.

What the numbers say

Our model produces fairly even odds, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

These are tight numbers with no overwhelming favorite: the 41% for St. Louis reflects its strong current form, but the gap over the home side's 33% isn't wide enough to rule out a surprise. The model also projects expected goals of 1.52 for the Red Bulls and 1.71 for St. Louis, a combined 3.24, in line with a 44% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance both teams find the net. Keep in mind this is our own model's estimate, not a betting line.

With the home side needing all three points to move up the table and the visitors arriving in fine form, this matchup has the makings of a high scoring night at Sports Illustrated Stadium.