Sturm Graz and Celje Fight for Survival in the Europa League: A Clash of Needs Separated by Just Three Points

Down at the bottom of the Europa League league phase table, some games carry twice the weight, and this is one of them. Sturm Graz sits in 19th place with 4 points, Celje is nearly at the very bottom in 29th with just 1 point, and neither side can afford to keep giving away points at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.

The Austrian side arrives with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss through three matches in the competition, scoring 1 goal and conceding 3. The negative goal difference (-2) says plenty about how shaky the defense has been, though across its last five matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz has put together two wins, two draws and just one loss, a stretch that opened with back-to-back victories before cooling off with a draw, a defeat and another draw. In this season's Europa League, home and away combined, Sturm Graz is averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1 conceded per game across a three-match sample, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those outings. Oumar Diakite leads the team in scoring in that sample with one goal.

Celje, meanwhile, is having a much rougher tournament: 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 7 conceded, a minus-5 differential that places it near the very bottom of the overall standings. Its last five matches tell a more encouraging story, with two wins and three draws and no losses in that short stretch. But within its own Europa League sample this season, the Slovenian club is conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game and has yet to post a single clean sheet (0%), with Blaz Kramer and Armandas Kucys as its scorers in that sample, one goal each.

Just 3 points separate the two clubs in the competition's overall table, confirming that this matchup pits two teams with similar needs against each other rather than a clear favorite facing a weaker opponent.

Likely Lineups

For Sturm Graz, the probable lineup drawn from its recent matches carries high reliability and points to Ammar Helac in goal, a back line of Joshua Quarshie, Paul-Friedrich Koller and Arjan Malic, a midfield of Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Luca Weinhandl, Jacob Hodl and Luis Balbo, and a front line of Simon Seidl, Valmir Matoshi and Diakite himself.

On Celje's side, the projection carries low reliability, a sign of considerable rotation lately. Even so, the most frequently used eleven features Zan-Luk Leban in goal, Pijus Sirvys, Artemijus Tutyskinas, Milot Avdyli and Lukasz Bejger across the back, Svit Seslar, Mario Kvesic and Mark Zabukovnik in midfield, and Armandas Kucys, Benjamin Verbic and Veton Tusha leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say Before Kickoff

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

Sturm Graz's 40% against Celje's 31%, with a 29% chance of a draw, confirms there is no overwhelming favorite here: the gap is just nine percentage points, and the expected goals split, 1.47 to 1.27 for an estimated total of 2.74, points to a game with chances at both ends, though the odds of both teams scoring are low at just 11%, while the probability of more than 2.5 goals climbs to 50%. All of this is an EnPelotas in-house estimate, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Sturm Graz needing to shore up its defense and Celje desperate for its first win of the competition, Stadion Graz-Liebenau hosts a direct showdown between two teams that can no longer afford to look up at the table from the bottom.