Stuttgart Sits Last After 1-5 Rout, But History Favors Them at Home Against Köln

A 1-5 defeat on opening day leaves a mark, and VfB Stuttgart carries that scoreline into this matchup. They host 1. FC Köln at the MHPArena in matchday 2 of the Bundesliga, arriving dead last in the table after that opening loss.

With just one match played by each side, the league record tells the story clearly enough: Stuttgart fell 1-5, scoring 1 goal and conceding 5, while Köln won its opener 3-2, netting 3 goals and allowing 2. That goal difference explains why Stuttgart sits in 18th place and Köln in sixth, with just 3 points separating them, though it's worth not reading too much into a table built on a single match.

Recent form, which covers each team's last five matches and offers a different picture than the league table, shows a much tighter race: Stuttgart comes in with two wins, one draw and two losses over that stretch, and Köln has an identical record of two wins, one draw and two losses, though the club from western Germany closes out that run on a two-game winning streak.

There's another data point worth noting, drawn from a separate sample of 2026 Bundesliga season trends covering both home and away matches, and it shouldn't be confused with the head-to-head league record: in those numbers, Stuttgart averages 1 goal scored per match and 5 conceded, with Josha Vagnoman as its top scorer, while Köln averages 3 goals scored and 2 conceded, led by Thijs Dallinga with 2 goals. Both teams also share the same scoring window, netting most often between the 46th and 60th minutes.

A History That Clearly Favors the Home Side

The head-to-head record heavily favors Stuttgart: of 8 matches played, Stuttgart has won 6, there have been 2 draws, and Köln has yet to win a single one. The combined goal difference, 17 for Stuttgart against just 4 for Köln, only reinforces that historical edge for the home team.

Probable Lineups

Stuttgart could line up with Alexander Nübel in goal, a back three of Jeff Chabot, Ramon Hendriks and Nikolas Nartey, a midfield featuring Angelo Stiller, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Chris Führich, Jamie Leweling and Chema Andres, and Deniz Undav paired with Ermedin Demirovic up top. This is an estimated lineup, with medium reliability based on recent matches.

For Köln, the probable lineup carries low reliability, but points to Marvin Schwäbe between the posts, a back five of Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Cenk Özkacar, Kristoffer Lund, Sebastian Sebulonsen and Alessio Castro-Montes, a midfield of Marius Bülter, Tom Krauß, Ísak Jóhannesson and Jakub Kaminski, and Saïd El Mala leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say Before Kickoff

Our model, which is based on season trends and should not be read as a betting line, gives a clear edge to the home side:

That 68% figure in Stuttgart's favor stands in sharp contrast to the blow they took on opening weekend, and it rests mainly on the historical head-to-head and the expected goals numbers, which project a combined total of 3.56. Köln, with just 13%, arrives as the clear underdog but not without a case to make: they've already shown they can score three goals in a match.

With Stuttgart needing to respond at home and Köln looking to keep alive the strong start that has them among the league's top six, the MHPArena is shaping up for a match short on certainties and likely heavy on goals.