Sunderland defends European unbeaten run as Dinamo Zagreb arrives in good form

Sunderland arrives at this round of the Europa League unbeaten and hosts a Dinamo Zagreb side still searching for consistency in the competition at the Stadium of Light. Régis Le Bris's team have collected two wins and a draw in their three matches in the tournament without tasting defeat, while the Croatians come in with a more uneven record: one win, one draw and one loss.

Recent form, though, paints a different picture than the standings. Over their last five matches across all competitions, Sunderland have managed just one win, with two draws and two losses in that stretch. Dinamo Zagreb, by contrast, arrive sharper: three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, with victories in two of the most recent three before a stumble.

In the tournament's overall standings, Sunderland sit ninth with 7 points, while Dinamo Zagreb are further down in 18th, having played the same number of matches but with 4 points. The gap between the two sides in the table is 3 points, which confirms the matchup is tighter than the positions suggest: Sunderland hold the better goal difference (plus 2 against Dinamo's minus 1), but neither side is far from the other.

How they arrive by the numbers

Beyond the tournament standings, it's worth looking at each team's Europa League 2026 trends, both home and away. Sunderland average 1.333 goals scored and 0.667 conceded per match across that three-game sample, with 33% of matches kept scoreless at the back, and their most productive stretch falls between minutes 61 and 75. Enzo Le Fée, Noah Sadiki and Jules Ahoka stand out as their top scorers in that sample, with one goal apiece.

Dinamo Zagreb, in the same competition and split, average 1 goal scored and 1.333 conceded, with 67% of matches ending with a clean sheet. Their peak offensive stretch comes earlier, between minutes 31 and 45. Dion Beljo is by far their top reference in front of goal in that sample, accounting for three of the team's goals.

Probable lineups

Sunderland's lineup, rated low reliability based on recent selections, would likely feature Robin Roefs in goal, with a back line of Luke O'Nien, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume and Reinildo Mandava. In midfield, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Nilson Angulo, Chris Rigg and Enzo Le Fée are the likely picks, with Tymur Tutierov leading the line.

For Dinamo Zagreb, also rated low reliability in this projection, Dominik Kotarski would guard the goal, protected by Sergi Domínguez, Scott McKenna, Matteo Pérez Vinlöf and Niko Galesic. In midfield, Josip Misic, Luka Ivanusec, Arbër Hoxha, Luka Stojkovic and Iker Almena would feature, with Dion Beljo as the lone forward.

What the model says

According to our own projection, the match is very even, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

Expected goals also reflect that balance: 1.3 for Sunderland against 1.39 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined 2.7 that suggests a match with scoring chances for both sides, though the model puts the probability of going over 2.5 total goals at just 33%. The likelihood of both teams scoring runs higher, at 67%. This is, in any case, our own projection and not a betting line.

With Sunderland's unbeaten run on the line and Dinamo Zagreb needing points to settle into the table, the Stadium of Light hosts a match without a clear favorite, where any small detail could tip the balance.