Sunderland the favorite at Portman Road as Ipswich looks to shore up a leaky defense against a rival in better form

Ipswich Town hosts Sunderland at Portman Road in a Premier League clash between two sides whose seasons have taken very different shapes so far. The home side needs to fix a defense that's been leaking goals, while the visitors arrive hoping to cement a spot near the top of the table on the back of an attack that has delivered when it mattered most.

How the two teams arrive

Ipswich Town is unbeaten in its last five matches, with two wins and three draws in that span, a run that has stirred some optimism around the club. Still, the season's overall numbers tell a tougher story: the Portman Road side is averaging 0.74 goals scored per game against 2.32 conceded, and has kept a clean sheet in just 5% of its matches, a figure that points to a clear defensive fragility. Ipswich tends to score more often in the opening 15 minutes of matches.

Sunderland, meanwhile, comes in with two wins, two draws and a loss in its last five outings. Its output on both ends, 0.90 goals scored per game and 1.48 conceded, is sturdier than its opponent's, and its clean sheet rate climbs to 21% of matches. It's also a team that tends to show up late: its most productive scoring window falls between the 76th and 90th minutes. Brian Brobbey, with 7 goals, Wilson Isidor with 6 and Enzo Le Fée with 5 lead the attack this campaign.

The head-to-head record

The recent history between these two clubs clearly favors Sunderland. Of the eight meetings played, the visitors have won 4, there have been 2 draws and Ipswich has come out on top in 2. In terms of goals, Sunderland also holds the edge with 10 scored compared to Ipswich's 7.

Probable lineups

For Ipswich, the expected XI has Christian Walton in goal, a back line of Darnell Furlong, Jacob Greaves, Dara O'Shea and Leif Davis, a midfield with Azor Matusiwa, Jaden Philogene, Marcelino Núñez, Jack Taylor and Kasey McAteer, and Iván Azón leading the line. This lineup carries a low reliability rating based on the team's recent patterns.

Sunderland, with a probable lineup rated medium reliability, would field Robin Roefs in goal, a defense made up of Nordi Mukiele, Reinildo Mandava, Omar Alderete, Dan Ballard and Lutsharel Geertruida, with Trai Hume, Enzo Le Fée, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki in midfield, and Brian Brobbey as the central striker.

Match probabilities

These figures, which reflect an in-house estimate based on the season's trends rather than betting odds, mark Sunderland as the clear favorite at 47%, though the draw (28%) remains a real possibility. The model also projects a combined expected goals total of 2.72, split between 1.11 for Ipswich and 1.61 for Sunderland, figures that are in-house estimates rather than official data. Additional trends point to a 47% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring.

With Ipswich unbeaten in five games but struggling defensively, and Sunderland arriving with more solidity and a favorable recent record, Portman Road is set to host a contest where the margin for error could prove decisive.