Last-place Talleres hosts Independiente in search of a lift up the table

Talleres hosts Independiente at Mario Alberto Kempes Stadium with the standings working against them: with 8 points from 11 games, Omar De Felippe's side sits last in Group A, while Jádson Viera's Independiente arrives in eighth place with 17 points. There's no room to relax in Córdoba: the home side has racked up seven losses so far in Argentina's Primera División and needs to turn around a trend that has it stuck at the bottom of the table.

The gap in the standings stands at 9 points in the visitors' favor, and Talleres' recent numbers don't help matters: in its last five matches the team managed just one win, one draw and three losses. Across the tournament as a whole, De Felippe's side has won 2, drawn 2 and lost 7, scoring 11 goals and conceding 18. Independiente, by contrast, comes in with better form over its last five games (two wins, one draw and two losses), though its overall tournament record (5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded) hardly paints the picture of an overwhelming team either.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in its specific role this season in Argentina's Primera División: at home, Talleres averages 1.28 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 43% of its matches, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes. Independiente, on the road, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, with clean sheets in just 13% of its away games, and its most productive stretch comes between the 46th and 60th minutes. These are samples from this season under those specific conditions, not a reflection of the tournament as a whole.

The head-to-head record clearly favors Talleres: of the 8 matches played, the home side has won 6, the visitors 2, with no draws, and Talleres has scored 18 goals against Independiente's 12. That's useful context, but not necessarily a reflection of how either team arrives at this match today.

Probable lineups

For Talleres, the projected lineup (medium reliability, based on recent selections) would have Ezequiel Unsain in goal, a back four of Gabriel Báez, Augusto Schott, Matías Catalán and Valentín Fascendini, a midfield of Rick, Valentín Depietri, Franco Cristaldo, Matías Galarza and Juan Sforza, with Agustín Álvarez leading the attack. For Independiente, the likely XI features Rodrigo Rey between the posts, a back line of Leonardo Godoy, Juan Miguel Arrayago, Facundo Zabala and Juan Fedorco, a midfield of Iván Marcone, Mateo Pérez Curci and Maximiliano Meza, and up front Santiago Montiel alongside Matías Abaldo and Josias Palais.

What the numbers say

Our model gives this match a fairly even split, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

None of the three outcomes clears a third of the probability, so there's no clear favorite here: this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals back up that even reading: 1.01 for Talleres and 1.13 for Independiente, for a total of 2.14. The additional trends point to a 62% chance that both teams score and a 40% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals.

With Talleres needing points to pull away from the bottom of the table and Independiente looking to settle into the middle of the standings, the Kempes has all the ingredients for a tight match, one where any small detail could tip the balance.