Toronto FC rallies to draw with New York City FC at BMO Field

New York City FC took the lead and had visions of a full three points at BMO Field, but Toronto FC found a response at just the right moment to seal a 1-1 draw and split the points in MLS. It was a game with more home chances than goals, decided by two sharp strikes in a matchup that looked more even on paper than it played out on the field.

New York City FC struck first in the 28th minute. Nicolás Fernández Mercau connected on a left-footed shot from outside the box that slipped in off the right side of the goal, set up by an assist from Agustín Ojeda. Before that goal, Toronto FC had already been knocking on the door: Markus Cimermancic and Alonso Coello tested their luck in the opening minutes, and Walker Zimmerman sent a header narrowly wide of the visitors' goal. Zimmerman tried again before halftime, but the first half ended with the away side ahead despite Toronto controlling most of the territory.

In the second half, Toronto FC kept pushing and got its reward in the 69th minute. Dániel Sallói, who had come on from the bench, finished with his left foot from the center of the box off a cross from Theo Corbeanu, leveling the score for good. The closing stretch produced more chances, with Djordje Mihailovic testing the keeper from distance and Luighi looking for a second goal for New York City FC, but neither net moved again.

The numbers behind the game

The stats back up what played out on the field: Toronto FC was the more persistent attacking side, though New York City FC controlled the ball better.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Toronto FC generated 0.98 expected goals to New York City FC's 0.59, a gap that backs up the home side's greater offensive output even though the final score ended level.

Our preview ahead of the match had given Toronto FC a 31% chance of winning, 30% for a draw and 39% for a New York City FC victory, with expected goals of 1.21 for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors. The final result, a draw, fell within the range we had projected, though the balance of chances on the field tilted more in Toronto's favor than that projection suggested.

What the result means in the standings

In the Eastern Conference, New York City FC came into this match in seventh place with 28 points from 22 games played (7 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses), while Toronto FC sits tenth with 25 points also from 22 matches (5 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses). The gap between the two clubs stood at just 3 points before this meeting, and the draw at BMO Field doesn't shift that balance much: neither side moves decisively closer to or further from the top of the conference.

For Toronto FC, the point feels like a morale-boosting comeback after trailing on the scoreboard for nearly 40 minutes. For New York City FC, though, there's a sense of having let a lead slip away after building it with a quality goal and dominant possession. BMO Field is left with a draw that, with some nuance, reflects what the preview had anticipated.