Toronto FC vs. New York City FC: an open contest at BMO Field with the visitors favored

Toronto FC comes in on a short but uneven run, while New York City FC has dropped four of its last five matches. That contrast in form is the big question heading into this clash at BMO Field, part of MLS play, between two clubs fighting to stay close to the top of the Eastern Conference.

Toronto sits 10th with a record of 5 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in 21 matches, scoring 31 goals and conceding 37. It's a balanced team on both sides of the ball (2.005 goals scored and allowed per game on average) and has yet to post a clean sheet this season. Over its last five matches it has gone 1-2-2 in loss-draw-win terms, closing that stretch with a victory. Its best scoring window comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes, worth keeping in mind if the match stays tight into the closing stages. Dániel Sallói leads the attack with 5 goals, followed by Josh Sargent with 4 and Derrick Etienne with 3.

New York City FC, seventh with 7 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in 21 matches (35 goals scored, 30 allowed), arrives bruised: four losses and a draw in its last five outings, without a single win in that span. Its offensive output is more modest than Toronto's (1.008 goals scored per game) while it concedes an average of 1.197, with clean sheets in just 10% of its matches. Unlike its opponent, NYCFC tends to strike early, with its most productive scoring window falling between the 16th and 30th minutes. Nicolás Fernández Mercau is the club's top scorer by a wide margin with 13 goals, well ahead of Hannes Wolf and Agustín Ojeda, both on 5.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the gap between the two sides is just 3 points, with NYCFC ahead in the overall table though only narrowly clear of Toronto.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors the visitors

The history between these two clubs tells a lopsided story: of 8 matches played, New York City FC has won 6, Toronto FC just 1, with 1 draw. The goal difference is even more striking, with NYCFC scoring 18 goals in that span against just 6 for Toronto.

Possible lineups

As a probable lineup with low reliability, Toronto FC could go with Luka Gavran in goal, Richie Laryea, Walker Zimmerman, Jackson Gilman and either Benjamín Kuscevic or Kobe Franklin across the back line, Dániel Sallói, Theo Corbeanu, Djordje Mihailovic and Markus Cimermancic in midfield, and Josh Sargent leading the line.

For the visitors, with medium reliability, New York City FC could field Matt Freese in goal, James Sands, Nico Cavallo, Tayvon Gray and Max Murray in defense, Andrés Perea, Bénie Traoré, Agustín Ojeda, Jonathan Shore and Keaton Parks in midfield, and Nicolás Fernández Mercau up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model sees a tight match, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

All three outcomes sit relatively close together, with New York City FC's 39% the highest figure of the three, though that's far from making Toronto a clear underdog on paper: the home side's 31% and the 30% draw probability round out an open forecast. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. Complementary trends also point to a match with scoring chances for both sides: a 56% probability of more than 2.5 goals and an 80% chance both teams find the net.

With Toronto looking to make the most of its late-game punch and NYCFC needing to snap its rough patch, BMO Field could serve up a back-and-forth affair, in line with what both teams' expected goals figures suggest.