Udinese looks to snap losing streak against unbeaten Milan

Five straight losses is a number that carries weight, and that's exactly what Udinese brings into this clash at the Bluenergy Stadium. Standing across from them will be a Milan side that has yet to taste defeat in Serie A this season. Rarely does a league table capture the gap between two squads as clearly as it does in this Serie A matchup.

Kosta Runjaic's Udinese sits in 16th place, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 5 losses in 7 matches played, 9 goals scored and 16 allowed. The recent run confirms the rough patch: five losses in the last five games. Playing at home this season, the Friuli side averages 0.508 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per match, with a 0% clean sheet rate, and tends to find the scoresheet between the 16th and 30th minutes.

Ruben Amorim's Milan, meanwhile, sits in fourth place with 4 wins, 3 draws and no losses in their 7 matches played, 14 goals scored and 7 allowed. Over the last five games they've picked up three wins, a draw and a loss. On the road in this Serie A campaign, their numbers show 1.505 goals scored and 1.243 conceded per match, also without a clean sheet in that sample, and with their most productive stretch coming between the 61st and 75th minutes. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 11 points.

What the history shows

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Udinese either: of the 8 meetings between the clubs, Milan has won 5, Udinese 3, with no draws, and the Rossoneri holding a 16-11 edge in goals over the Italian home side.

Probable lineups

For Udinese, the projected lineup (medium reliability) would have Maduka Okoye in goal, a back line of Enzo Ebosse, Oumar Solet, James Abankwah and Christian Kabasele, with Jesper Karlström, Mërgim Vojvoda and Hassane Kamara in midfield, and Keinan Davis, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp and Unai Gómez up top. Ekkelenkamp, in fact, stands as the team's top scorer at home this season with 3 goals.

Milan, with a probable lineup of low reliability, could field Mike Maignan between the posts, Strahinja Pavlovic and Koni De Winter in defense, a midfield with Yunus Musah, Samuel Chukwueze, Pervis Estupiñán, Diego Moreira and Ardon Jashari, and Adrien Rabiot, Gonçalo Ramos and Alphadjo Cisse leading the attack. Rabiot tops Milan's scoring chart on the road with 4 goals.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a slight edge to the visitors, though without the gap widening too much:

The 50% probability given to Milan is clear, but not overwhelming: a draw looks like a real possibility at 28%, well above the 22% we give Udinese. As for expected goals, our estimate points to 1 for Udinese and 1.62 for Milan, a combined 2.62 that lines up with trends showing a 50% probability of both over 2.5 total goals and both teams scoring. As always, this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With Udinese in need of a statement result and Milan looking to protect its unbeaten run, the Bluenergy Stadium has the makings of a match that looks even on paper, even if the numbers make the favorite fairly clear.