Udinese, second to last and winless, hosts unbeaten Roma as clear favorite

The Bluenergy Stadium hosts a contrast that makes the numbers uncomfortable: Udinese, second to last with just 5 points, against a Roma side that still hasn't tasted defeat in Serie A. Nine matchdays into the season, the two paths could not be more opposite.

Udinese arrives bruised. The club sits 17th with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses so far this campaign, with 9 goals scored and 18 conceded. The recent picture is even worse: over its last five matches, the team has piled up four losses and a draw, without a single win. Under coach Kosta Runjaic, the side needs to snap a run that has it stuck near the bottom of the table.

On the other side, Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma is having a near-perfect campaign: 6 wins and 3 draws in 9 matches, with no losses, 23 goals scored and just 8 conceded. That goal difference keeps them in third place, only four points behind leaders Inter and Lazio, who share the top spot. Over their last five outings, the Romans have collected three wins, a draw and just one loss, a run that confirms the team's consistency. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 16 points, something the matchup itself is quick to remind everyone of.

It's also worth looking at each team's home and away trends, though without mixing them in with their overall season record. Playing at home this Serie A season, Udinese averages just 0.4 goals scored per game and concedes 1.8, without a single clean sheet in that five-game sample; the stretch in which it scores most often falls between minutes 16 and 30. Roma, on the other hand, averages 2.25 goals scored and just 0.74 conceded on the road, with 75 percent of its away matches in that four-game sample ending without conceding, and tends to score most between minutes 61 and 75. Donyell Malen stands as Gasperini's side's top scorer in that setting with 7 goals, while Jurgen Ekkelenkamp leads the Friulians at home with 3.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor Udinese either: of 8 meetings, Roma has won 6, Udinese 2, with no draws, and a combined scoreline of 15 to 8 in favor of the visitors.

Probable Lineups

As an estimate based on recent matches, and with medium reliability, Udinese could take the field with Maduka Okoye in goal; James Abankwah, Christian Kabasele, Enzo Ebosse and Matteo Palma across the back line; Jesper Karlstrom, Hassane Kamara, Mergim Vojvoda and Giorgi Chakvetadze in midfield; and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp alongside Keinan Davis up front.

Roma, with a low-reliability projection, could line up with Pierluigi Gollini between the posts; Evan Ndicka, Gianluca Mancini, Mario Hermoso and Konstantinos Koulierakis in defense; Marten de Roon, Niccolo Pisilli, Nahuel Molina and Wesley in midfield; and the attacking duo of Matias Soule and Donyell Malen.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a clear edge to the visitors, though it doesn't completely rule out a draw or a home upset.

Expected goals, another in-house estimate, back up that reading: 0.92 for Udinese against 1.94 for Roma, a combined total of 2.86. On top of that, the probability of more than 2.5 goals sits at 45 percent and the chance of both teams scoring at 30 percent, figures that don't point to a wide-open rout but do mark Roma as the clear favorite to walk away with all three points.

With Udinese in need of results to climb out of the bottom of the table and Roma defending its unbeaten Serie A run, the Bluenergy Stadium has all the ingredients to test just how real the home side's crisis is against one of the league's best defenses.