Union Berlin and Köln battle to escape the relegation zone in a toss-up clash

Union Berlin hosts Köln with the table pulling both clubs downward: the home side sits 17th with just 6 points, while the visitors are two spots and two points better off, in 12th place. At the Alten Försterei, both teams' urgency to break away from the lower half of the Bundesliga will be put to the test.

Union comes in with a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 3 losses in 7 matches, and the goal difference tells its own story: 6 scored against 18 allowed. Over its last five games the club has managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, closing out with a defeat in its most recent outing. Köln isn't faring much better in the overall standings, but arrives in sharper form: 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the league, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded, and in its last five matches it won twice, including the most recent one, giving it a bit more momentum heading into this trip.

It's worth looking at a few trends specific to each team, though separate from their overall league form. Playing at home in this season's Bundesliga, Union Berlin averages 1.243 goals scored and 1.505 allowed per match across a sample of 4 games, with a 50% clean sheet rate, and tends to score more between the 76th and 90th minutes. Tim Skarke stands out as its top scorer in that sample, with 2 goals. Köln, meanwhile, on the road in the same competition and season (3 matches) shows a tighter average: 0.677 goals scored against 2.333 allowed, with no clean sheets, though it also tends to show up late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. There, Thijs Dallinga and Saïd El Mala stand out, with 2 goals each.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite either: in 8 meetings, Union has won 3, Köln has won 3, and there have been 2 draws, with 11 goals for Union against 13 for Köln across those matches.

Probable lineups

For Union Berlin, an estimated lineup projects Frederik Rønnow in goal; a back line of Tom Rothe, Janik Haberer, Felix Uduokhai, Zeno Van den Bosch and Leopold Querfeld; in midfield, Rani Khedira, Michel Aebischer, Woo-yeong Jeong and András Schäfer; and Tim Skarke leading the attack.

On Köln's side, the probable lineup would have Marvin Schwäbe between the posts; a back line with Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Tom Krauß, Luka Lochoshvili and Sebastian Sebulonsen; in midfield, Linton Maina, Mikey Moore, Borna Sosa and Alessio Castro-Montes; and up top, Saïd El Mala alongside Marius Bülter. In both cases these lineups are projected from recent matches, not officially confirmed.

What the numbers say

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: just two percentage points separate Köln from Union, and the draw isn't far behind either. Expected goals back up that read, with 1.38 for Union and 1.41 for Köln, for an estimated total of 2.79. This is our model's own projection, not a betting line. On top of that, a 58% probability points to more than 2.5 goals in the match, and 50% to both teams scoring, suggesting a contest with scoring chances for both sides.

With both teams needing points to pull away from the drop zone, the Alten Försterei is set for a match in which any result would fit what the numbers suggest.