Valencia crash into the Athletic Club wall: 16 shots and a 0-0 that feels like a missed chance

Sixteen shots, four big chances and nothing to show for it: Valencia ran into the post, the goalkeeper and their own lack of finishing once again, and Athletic Club left Mestalla with a 0-0 that, given the home side's dominance, feels almost like a prize for the Basques. In a LaLiga clash, both teams walked away feeling the scoreline didn't fully reflect what happened on the pitch.

The script was clear from the first quarter of an hour: Valencia poured forward into the Athletic Club box with crosses from the flanks and balls over the top of the defense, while Edin Terzic's side looked to break on the counter with Iñaki Williams as their main threat. As early as the 6th minute, Hugo Duro headed a corner wide to the left; a minute later Pablo Maffeo also tried a header from a corner, failing to find the target. Athletic Club answered through Johaneko Louis-Jean in the 17th minute and, above all, with a header from Aymeric Laporte in the 24th that skimmed the crossbar after a cross from Alex Berenguer.

The story repeated itself in the closing stretch of the first half: Javi Guerra, Jose Gaya and Hugo Duro all tried their luck without reward, and right before the break Iñaki Williams forced a good save from the visiting goalkeeper. Even so, the match went into halftime scoreless.

A second half of pressure without reward

In the second half, Valencia pushed with their substitutions: Luis Rioja and David Otorbi came on for Dani Raba and Hugo Duro, and the home side created several clear openings. Gaya fired a low shot that was saved right under the posts, Otorbi came close twice, and past the hour mark Javi Guerra had two glaring chances: one at point-blank range in the 69th minute that the goalkeeper parried away low, and another in the 80th with a low shot that was also kept out. Harvey Elliott, who had come on after an injury to Justin de Haas, also tried his luck from outside the box without success.

Athletic Club, with fewer chances but more of the ball, managed the result with the help of fresh legs off the bench (Jauregizar, Areso, Guruzeta, Rego and Sannadi all came on) and a defense that weathered the siege without conceding. The match also produced yellow cards for Dani Raba, Aymeric Laporte, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Pepelu and Cesar Tarrega, a sign of the intensity and physical wear of a tightly contested game.

What the numbers say

The paradox lies in the ball: Athletic Club dominated possession with 63.2 percent and racked up more passes and more corners, but it was Valencia who generated the real danger, with 16 shots to 9. That gap looks even bigger when you factor in the xG calculated after the fact based on shot location: 2.252 for Valencia against just 0.551 for Athletic Club. It's an estimate made after the match, not a prediction, but it confirms the home side deserved more than a point for the chances they created.

That figure contrasts with what we projected before kickoff: our model gave Valencia a 37 percent chance of winning, 31 percent for a draw and 32 percent for Athletic Club, with expected goals of 1.23 for the home side and 1.14 for the visitors, a combined total of 2.37. The draw ended up being the result, though with a far more lopsided split of chances than that preview anticipated.

In the standings, this point leaves Valencia in a tough spot: with 6 points from 9 games played, 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses, they remain in the lower reaches of the table. Athletic Club, with 9 points from 7 games (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), add another draw to a still-uneven campaign. There are 3 points separating the two clubs in the table. Neither side got the three points they needed, but it's Valencia who will be left stewing over their inability to turn all that pressure into a goal.