Levante and Athletic Club meet at the Ciutat de Valencia with the home side holding the slimmest of edges

The Ciutat de Valencia hosts a clash between two mid-to-lower table sides in LaLiga that carries more urgency than the standings suggest: Levante and Athletic Club arrive separated by just 2 points, and neither has managed to find its footing early in the campaign.

Levante sits 13th with 5 points from 5 matches played (1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded). Over its last five matches it has picked up a win, two draws and two losses, with a loss as its most recent result. Athletic, ninth with 7 points from the same number of matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 7 goals scored and 6 conceded), arrives in slightly better spirits: over its last five matches it collected two wins, a draw and two losses, and comes off a draw after stringing together two victories.

Neither side enters the match looking like an outfit settled near the top: the gap between them in the table is minimal, and neither has won more than two matches in the competition so far.

What the head-to-head record says

The recent head-to-head record clearly favors Athletic Club: of the 8 matches played, Levante has not won a single one, there have been 3 draws and Athletic has taken 5 wins, with an aggregate score of 15 to 6 in favor of the Basques. That's a heavy number for the home crowd to carry, though it says nothing about what will happen on the field today.

How they could line up

Levante's probable lineup, rated medium reliability based on recent lineups, would keep Mathew Ryan in goal behind a back line of Adrián de la Fuente, Manu Sánchez, Aïssa Mandi and Nacho Pérez, with Jon Ander Olasagasti, Roger Brugué, Oriol Rey, Enzo Bardeli and Thiago Fernández in midfield and Iván Romero leading the line.

On Athletic's side, the probable lineup carries low reliability, but the group that has appeared most often in recent matches includes Unai Simón in goal, Yuri Berchiche, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte and Jesús Areso in defense, Oihan Sancet, Robert Navarro, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta and Nico Williams in midfield, with Iñaki Williams up top.

In the 2026 LaLiga season, combining home and away matches, Levante averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with a 40% clean sheet rate, and its most productive scoring stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes; Roger Brugué is its top scorer in that sample with 3 goals. Athletic, in that same span this season, also averages 1.4 goals scored but only 1.2 conceded, with an identical 40% clean sheet rate, and its best stretch falls between the 16th and 30th minutes; Robert Navarro stands out there with 2 goals.

The odds

Our model projects a very even match, with no clear favorite:

All three outcomes are essentially tied, with Levante just ahead thanks to home advantage. The expected goals figures are also very close, in line with the trend that points to a 50% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match and a 32% chance that both teams score. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a firm prediction.

With both teams in need of points and a head-to-head record weighing on Levante, the match at the Ciutat de Valencia looks even on paper, though home advantage and Athletic's recent form could tip any small detail in its favor.