Valverde breaks Athens hearts as Real Madrid escape with 2-3 win over AEK

There were barely four minutes left on the clock when Federico Valverde took a touch outside the box and ripped a right-footed shot into the top corner, silencing the Allwyn Arena. That goal, in the 91st minute, handed Real Madrid a 2-3 win that had looked out of reach just fifteen minutes earlier, when AEK Athens had turned the match on its head and were dreaming of a landmark upset in the Champions League.

The match started with Real Madrid controlling possession but unable to turn that into real danger, and it was AEK who struck first: in the 11th minute, Aboubakary Koita finished with his left foot from the center of the box after an assist from Luka Jovic to make it 1-0. Madrid needed twenty minutes to respond, but did so through a player who thrives in these moments: Jude Bellingham, also with his left foot, knocked home a Marc Cucurella cross in the 31st minute to level the score, and that is how the teams went into the break.

The second half opened up. AEK went back in front in the 74th minute on a counterattack finished off by Stavros Pilios, set up by Koita, and the stadium began to believe in the upset. But the Greek side's lead lasted barely three minutes: Kylian Mbappe, arriving off a Denzel Dumfries cross, finished from close range with his right foot to make it 2-2. The match stayed open until the end, and deep into stoppage time, with four minutes added by the fourth official, Valverde struck with an assist from Brahim Diaz to seal the final 2-3.

Control that was hard to cash in

The numbers make clear that Real Madrid was by far the better side in terms of controlling the game, even though turning that into goals proved agonizingly difficult until the very end. The visitors held 69.6% of possession and produced nearly three times as many shots as their opponents.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Real Madrid generated 3.01 expected goals compared to just 1.47 for AEK, a gap that confirms Mourinho's side deserved the win given the sheer volume of chances it created, even if it took until the final gasp to make it count.

What the preview said

Before kickoff, our projection gave Real Madrid a 49% chance of winning, against 25% for AEK Athens and a 26% chance of a draw, with total expected goals projected at 3.07. The final result, with five goals on the board and a finish decided in the dying minutes, ended up lining up fairly well with that projected goal tally, even though the path there was far more chaotic than expected: the home side went ahead twice and had the match in its grasp right up until the closing stretch.

The standings and what comes next

With this result, Real Madrid moves to 12 points through four matches, with a record of four wins and no defeats, sitting in second place in the competition, one point off the lead. AEK Athens, meanwhile, remains in the lower reaches of the table with 3 points after one win and three losses, nine points behind tonight's opponent.

The match leaves the impression of a Real Madrid side that still needs to grit its teeth down the stretch to close out games, but one that once again found the decisive goal with the clock already working against it. For AEK Athens, there is only the sting of having held a historic result in its hands for more than a quarter of an hour, only to see it snatched away in stoppage time.