Velde's brace of free kicks rescues Portland Timbers in 2-2 draw with St. Louis City SC

Kristoffer Velde had to pull out the free-kick playbook twice at Providence Park to spare the Portland Timbers a loss. His second direct free kick, in the 88th minute, made it 2-2 against St. Louis City SC in an MLS match that had turned ugly for the home side after they twice fell behind.

The match hadn't even reached the one-minute mark when Rafael Navarro put St. Louis City SC ahead with a close-range finish that caught Portland's defense off guard. A cold blow to start the game at home. The Timbers took half an hour to respond, but did so in style: in the 31st minute, Velde equalized from a free kick, curling a low shot just inside the left post that left the visiting goalkeeper with no chance.

The 1-1 scoreline held until halftime, but St. Louis struck again almost as soon as the second half began. In the 50th minute, the St. Louis forward completed his brace with a point-blank header from the left side, pure instinct in the box, to put the visitors back in front. From there, Portland pushed for the equalizer, creating chances through Antony, Joao Ortiz and Cole Bassett, but the St. Louis goal held firm until Velde struck again: in the 88th minute, another direct free kick, this time down the middle, made it a final 2-2.

An even contest on the stat sheet, with nuances

Portland Timbers controlled possession and generated more overall volume, but St. Louis was sharper when it came to finishing. The postgame numbers reflect that well:

The foul count for St. Louis (21 against Portland's 10) makes sense given the final result: it was precisely from a free kick, converted twice, that the Timbers drew level. As for the danger created, our post-match xG estimate favors St. Louis City SC with 2.073 against Portland's 1.198, a gap that confirms the visitors were more clinical with fewer clear-cut chances.

What the preview said and what actually happened

Before the match, our projection gave Portland Timbers a 43% chance of winning, a 24% chance of a draw and a 33% chance of a visiting win, with combined expected goals of 3.57 (1.91 for the home side and 1.66 for the visitors). The outcome ended up matching the least likely of the three scenarios in terms of final result, though the total number of goals (four) wasn't far off from the anticipated offensive volume.

What the result means

With this draw, Portland Timbers remain on 32 points in the MLS Western Conference, while St. Louis City SC moves to 38, a gap of 6 points between the two sides in the standings. Neither team could claim all three points at Providence Park, but the match left Velde as the undisputed protagonist of the night with his brace of free kicks, and Navarro as the man who twice put his side ahead without it being enough to secure the win.