Vélez heads to Newell's looking to extend unbeaten run at the Marcelo Bielsa

Vélez Sarsfield's unbeaten run in the league arrives intact in Rosario, though it comes in somewhat faded form: four straight draws in its last five matches before finally breaking that streak with a win. Newell's Old Boys, meanwhile, wants to build on the momentum of two draws and a victory in its last five outings to jump into the fight for the top of the table. The match is being played at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa and counts for Argentina's Primera División.

Newell's arrives with a record of 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 8 matches played in the tournament, with 9 goals scored and 7 allowed. It's a balanced team without any clear streaks, currently sitting in seventh place in Group A with 12 points. Vélez, for its part, hasn't lost a single match in the tournament: 4 wins and 4 draws in 8 games, 11 goals scored and 6 allowed, numbers that have it in second place with 16 points, just behind Gimnasia Mendoza on goal difference. There's a 4-point gap between the two sides in the standings.

Looking only at Newell's home performance in this same competition and season, across a sample of 8 matches, the Rosario side averages 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 allowed per game, with 25% of its matches ending without conceding a goal. Its most productive scoring window falls between the 76th and 90th minutes, and Ignacio Ramírez stands out as its top scorer in that sample with 4 goals. Vélez, looking only at its away matches this season and across the same number of games, improves on those numbers: 1.12 goals scored and 0.76 allowed per game, with half of its matches ending without conceding, and it tends to start fast, with its most productive scoring window between the 0 and 15 minute marks. Florián Monzón leads that sample with 6 goals.

The head-to-head record between the two sides, across 8 matches played, favors Newell's: 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 wins for Vélez, with 6 goals for the home side and 4 for the visitor in that combined tally.

Possible Lineups

With medium reliability, Newell's likely lineup would have Josué Reinatti in goal, a back line with Lautaro Giannetti, Franco Escobar, Martín Ortega, Lucas Carrizo and Jeronimo Russo, and a midfield of Facundo Guch, Luca Regiardo, Walter Mazzantti and Thomas Rios, with Matías Cóccaro as the target man up front. On Vélez's side, also as an estimate, the lineup could include Tomás Marchiori between the posts, a back line made up of Elías Gómez, Joaquín García, Thiago Silvero, Emanuel Mammana and Lisandro Magallán, and a midfield with Rodrigo Aliendro, Lucas Robertone, Matías Pellegrini, Manuel Lanzini and Álex Verón.

What the Numbers Say

Our model has Vélez as the favorite, though not by a wide margin:

The draw isn't far off from the away win, so it would be an exaggeration to call this a lopsided matchup based on the numbers. As for expected goals, the same in-house model assigns 0.85 to Newell's and 1.29 to Vélez, for an estimated total of 2.15. This is EnPelotas' own projection, not a sportsbook line, and should be treated as a reference point rather than a definitive forecast. Additional trends point to a 55% probability that both teams will score and just 13% that the match will go over 2.5 goals.

With Vélez looking to stretch its unbeaten run and Newell's needing a win to close the gap in the standings, the match at the Marcelo Bielsa figures to be tight on paper, even if the numbers lean slightly in favor of the visitors.