Vitória and Bahia meet in the Bahia derby with no clear favorite

Estádio Manoel Barradas hosts another chapter of the Bahia derby as Vitória and Bahia face off in the Brasileirão. Although both clubs share a city, their seasons are heading in different directions: the home side is fighting to pull away from the bottom half of the table, while the visitors remain locked in near the top.

How they arrive

Vitória sits in 12th place with 29 points, the product of 8 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in 23 matches played, with 23 goals scored and 33 allowed. Their recent form has been up and down: in their last five matches they've picked up two wins and three losses, with no draws in between. Offensively they're averaging 1.464 goals per match and tend to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes, though their defense has been their biggest issue, with a goal difference of minus 10 on the season.

Bahia, meanwhile, sit in sixth place with 34 points, backed by a record of 8 wins, 10 draws and just 5 losses in 23 matches, with 32 goals scored and 28 allowed. Their recent form stands out for a different reason: their last five matches all ended in draws, with no wins or losses in that stretch. The Salvador club averages 1.359 goals per match and tends to score late in the first half, between the 31st and 45th minutes, though their defense has been leakier, conceding 1.547 goals per match on average with clean sheets in just 27% of matches. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 5 points.

Head to head

The recent history between these two shows a fairly even balance with a slight edge for the visitors: of the last 8 meetings, Bahia won 3, Vitória won 2 and 3 ended in draws. In terms of goals, Bahia also has the upper hand, with 11 scored to Vitória's 9.

Probable lineups

As a probable, unconfirmed lineup, Vitória would rely on Lucas Arcanjo between the posts, with Renê as the offensive focal point, the team's top scorer with 5 goals, and Matheuzinho pulling the strings from midfield. On Bahia's side, the projected starting group includes Ronaldo in goal, with Luciano Juba (7 goals) as the main threat and Erick Pulga and Alejo Veliz leading the attack.

The odds

EnPelotas' proprietary model, based on this season's trends, points to an evenly matched contest with a slight lean toward the home side:

None of the three outcomes stands out clearly: 38% for Vitória sits alongside 33% for Bahia and a 29% chance of a draw, figures that reflect a matchup without a sharp favorite. This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a firm prediction. Additional trends point to a 67% probability that both teams will score and a 41% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals.

Looking ahead to the match

With Vitória in need of points to climb out of the lower table and Bahia looking to end its run of draws, the Bahia derby promises to be tightly contested, and based on the projected numbers, goals shouldn't be in short supply at Estádio Manoel Barradas.