Walta's Free-Kick Double Sinks Ten-Man Albania and Hands Finland the Win

Three minutes in, Rey Manaj had already thrown a wrench into Finland's plans: a point-blank header off a corner kick from Kristjan Asllani made it 0-1 at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. In the end, though, Finland walked away with all three points: 2-1, with a brace of direct free kicks from Leo Walta deciding the UEFA Nations League clash.

The match changed completely in the 21st minute, when Etrit Berisha was sent off for Albania. Down a man for almost the entire rest of the game, the visitors were forced to defend for dear life, and just four minutes later the home side struck back: Leo Walta leveled the score with a direct free kick at mid-height that curled into the right side of the net. There were more scares before halftime, with a header from Ardian Ismajli going just wide and another effort from Ylber Ramadani clipping the crossbar, but the first half ended level at one apiece.

In the second half, Albania, despite being a man short, refused to sit back: Stavros Pilios, Berat Djimsiti and Mirlind Daku all had clear-cut chances, with Daku testing the keeper several times without luck. But Finland once again found the answer on a set piece: in the 70th minute, Walta scored his second free kick of the match, this time with a low shot that snuck in by the left post, and that goal proved to be the difference.

What the numbers say

The stats tell the story of two different matches within the same game: Finland controlled possession, but Albania was sharper in front of goal despite playing a man down from early on.

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots backs up that impression: Albania generated 1.10 expected goals against Finland's 0.48, a gap that confirms the team that played a man down was, in terms of chances created, the more dangerous of the two. Before kickoff, however, our model's preview had projected the exact opposite: a 44% chance of a Finland win, 34% for a draw and just 22% for Albania, with expected goals of 1.17 for the hosts and 0.75 for the visitors. The final result ended up lining up more closely with that forecast than the run of play did, even though the path to get there was far bumpier than expected.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Finland moves to 7 points in Group C1, with two wins and a draw from three matches played, while Albania sits on 6 points, with two wins and a loss. The gap between the two sides is just a single point, and Finland sits atop the group, with Albania breathing down its neck in second place.

Above all, the match leaves behind the image of an Albanian side that competed on equal footing for nearly the entire game despite playing a man down from the first quarter hour, and of a Leo Walta who, individually, settled the match for Finland with two nearly identical direct free kicks. Berisha's red card ended up weighing more heavily on the outcome than the final score alone suggests.