Vasilije Adzic scores twice to lift Montenegro to the top of Group C2 against Latvia

Vasilije Adzic needed just two minutes to show how Montenegro had arrived at Skonto Stadions. A cross from Risto Radunovic, a low right-footed strike from the center of the box that found the left post, and the scoreboard already read Latvia 0, Montenegro 1. That is how the match between the two sides finished: 1-2, with Latvia reacting far too late in the UEFA Nations League.

Adzic himself struck again right at the start of the second half. In the 55th minute he received the ball from the left side of the box and finished with his right foot into the top left corner to make it 0-2. It was the second blow of the night for the hosts, who watched Montenegro manage the lead without facing too many problems, though not without a few scares: before the second goal, Roberts Uldrikis had cracked a header off the right post in the 42nd minute, and early in the second half he rattled the crossbar from the center of the box in the 52nd minute. Latvia had their flashes, but the ball simply would not go in.

The consolation goal came in the 81st minute. A corner kick from Kristers Cudars found Markuss Strods, who had come on just minutes earlier, and he finished left-footed from the center of the box into the top left corner to make it 1-2, the final score. Latvia threw everything forward in the closing minutes, with Strods himself and Andrejs Ciganiks getting further chances and Dennis Cirkin trying his luck in the 91st minute, but the result never changed again.

An even match on paper, settled by cutting edge

The numbers tell a more balanced story than the final score suggests. Latvia had a slight edge in possession and corners, but Montenegro was far more clinical where it counts most: shots on target.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Montenegro generated 2.18 expected goals to Latvia's 1.16, a gap that backs up what the scoreboard showed: the visitors created less shot volume, but of far greater danger.

What stands out is that this gap lines up with our pre-match projections. Beforehand we gave Montenegro a 51% chance of winning, against 35% for a draw and just 14% for a Latvian victory, with expected goals of 1.16 for the visitors and 0.48 for the hosts. The final result, with Montenegro taking the three points after leading for nearly the entire match, confirms that trend that was already expected.

What it means for the group standings

In Group C2, Montenegro came into this match as the leader and made it official on the field: they now have 9 points from 3 matches, with a perfect record of wins. Latvia, meanwhile, sit with just 1 point from 3 matches, the result of one draw and two losses, and a goal difference of minus 3. The gap between the two in the standings was already 8 points before this match, and the result only confirmed the contrasting moments each team is going through at this stage of the competition.

For Latvia, Strods' goal stands as a point of pride in a match where Montenegro, with Adzic as the undisputed star, was clearly superior in the final third. For Mirko Vucinic's side, it is another win that leaves them firmly out in front atop the group; for Paolo Nicolato's team, it is a fresh defeat that complicates any ambitions for the rest of the competition.