Cyprus battles back to stun Latvia with stoppage-time winner, 2-1

Marcus Edwards showed up right as the clock hit minute 93 to put away the final 2-1 in Cyprus's favor over Latvia, in a Group C2 clash in the UEFA Nations League that turned out to be far tougher than the hosts expected. The forward's left-footed strike from outside the box capped off a comeback Cyprus had to fight for after falling behind on the scoreboard.

The match got uphill for the home side right at the start of the second half. Latvia, who had been an uncomfortable opponent without much finishing touch, found the breakthrough in the 56th minute: Eduards Daskevics connected on a left-footed strike from inside the box, set up by Vladislavs Gutkovskis, and placed it in the top corner to make it 0-1. It was Latvia's first and only goal of the match, but it was enough to send a shiver through GSP Stadium.

Cyprus didn't take long to respond. Just thirteen minutes later, in the 69th minute, the equalizer arrived: Ioannis Kosti, who had come on from the bench at the start of the second half, finished with his right foot from point-blank range on the right side of the box to make it 1-1. The goal handed back control of the match to a side that had dominated nearly every statistical category without being able to turn it into goals.

Dominance that took its time to show on the scoreboard

The numbers back up that sense of Cypriot superiority across the 90 minutes. Cyprus controlled possession, created more chances, and was sharper in front of goal, though it struggled to find the second goal until the very end.

The shots on target tell the story: Cyprus sent seven balls between the posts to just one from Latvia, who spent most of the match sitting deep and holding on. According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, Cyprus generated 2.374 xG against 0.972 for Latvia, a gap that confirms the home side deserved a bit more than the narrow scoreline that ultimately played out.

Beforehand, our projection gave Cyprus a 53% chance of winning, against 34% for a draw and just 13% for a Latvian victory, with expected goals of 1.19 for the hosts and 0.46 for the visitors. The final result ended up matching that forecast of a Cypriot win, though the path there was bumpier than expected: Latvia took the lead and forced Cyprus to dig deep to grab all three points right at the death.

Where it leaves the group table

With this result, Cyprus stays second in the group with 7 points from four matches played (two wins, one draw and one loss), three points behind leaders Montenegro, who sit on 10. Latvia, meanwhile, remain bottom of the group with just 1 point from their four outings, still searching for their first win of this edition of the tournament.

The closing stretch summed up the night well: Cyprus kept pushing, kept creating chances, found no reward until there was almost no time left, and ended up celebrating in the dying seconds. Latvia, who had surprised everyone with Daskevics's goal, are left with the feeling they left something on the table after holding on for much of the second half.