Cyprus hosts Latvia with pressure to keep pace with Montenegro in Nations League

Cyprus and Latvia meet at GSP Stadium with a clear goal in mind: staying within reach of the pack in Group C2 of the UEFA Nations League. Montenegro sits comfortably atop the table, leaving these two sides to fight it out to avoid being left behind at the bottom when the group stage wraps up.

Cyprus sit second with 4 points through three matches (one win, one draw and one loss, with 3 goals scored and 2 allowed), while Latvia are bottom of the group with just 1 point, the product of a draw and two losses, and a goal difference of minus 3. The gap between the two sides in the standings is only 3 points, but the difference in performance is clear. Looking at recent form, Cyprus come in with two wins, two draws and a loss in their last five matches, a steadier run than Latvia, who have three losses and two draws in that same stretch, without a single win.

The head to head record doesn't offer much insight either: the two sides have met twice, both times ending in draws with a combined 1 to 1 scoreline. There has never been a clear winner between these two national teams.

Probable lineups

For the home side, the projected starting eleven (a low confidence estimate based on recent lineups) would have Fabiano Ribeiro de Freitas in goal, a back line with Nikolas Panagiotou, Kostas Pileas, Hector Kyprianou and either Giorgos Malekkides or Andreas Shikkis, with Grigoris Kastanos and Marcus Edwards as midfield reference points alongside Ioannis Kosti, and Ioannis Pittas as the main attacking threat up top.

Latvia, meanwhile, would likely field Rihards Matrevics between the posts, a back line of Antonijs Cernomordijs, Roberts Savalnieks, Deniss Melniks and Dennis Cirkin, a midfield built around regulars Andrejs Ciganiks and Lukass Vapne, with Roberts Uldrikis as the main attacking reference. This is also a projected lineup, not a confirmed one.

What the model says

Our model gives Cyprus a 53% chance of winning, a 34% chance of a draw, and just 13% for a Latvia victory. Those numbers point to a clear edge for the home side, though a draw remains a fairly likely outcome too.

As for expected goals, our own projection puts Cyprus at 1.19 and Latvia at 0.46, for a combined total of 1.64 in the match. These are figures from an internal model, not betting odds, but they back up the same read: Cyprus go in as favorites, though not by an overwhelming margin.

With Montenegro already well clear at the top of the group, what Cyprus and Latvia are playing for at GSP Stadium is mid table ground. For the home side, a win would mean closing in on top spot; for Latvia, any point at all would be a welcome break after a group stage that, so far, has given them no breathing room.