Atalanta looks to keep perfect start alive against Bologna at New Balance Arena

With just one matchday in the books, Serie A still doesn't reveal much, but the opening round has already produced contrasting fortunes: Atalanta won its debut while Bologna lost. That's the backdrop as both sides head into New Balance Arena for a matchup that could reshuffle the early standings for either club.

Atalanta opened the campaign with a win, scoring two goals and conceding one, a result that leaves them with a perfect record from their only match played and sitting in 8th place. Their recent form, looking at the last five matches, shows two wins, two draws and one loss, closing out that stretch on a high note with victories in the last two. They're averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, and tend to strike early, with their most productive scoring window falling between minute 0 and 15. Nikola Krstovic and Giacomo Raspadori have already opened their scoring accounts.

Bologna, on the other hand, arrives bruised: they lost their opener without scoring and conceded one, leaving them pointless and in 14th place. Looking at the last five matches, the side has posted two wins, one draw and two losses, though the recent trend points downward, with defeats in the last two of that stretch. They're averaging 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per match so far this season, a stat that looms over any projection for this game.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor Atalanta either: of 8 meetings, Bologna has won 5, Atalanta 2, with 1 draw, and a goal tally of 6 to 8 in the visitors' favor. It's worth keeping in mind, though it doesn't necessarily dictate what happens today.

Probable Lineups

With low reliability since this is an estimate based on recent matches, Atalanta could take the field with Marco Carnesecchi in goal, a back line of Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou, Raoul Bellanova and Davide Zappacosta, a midfield of Éderson, Gianluca Gaetano and Lazar Samardzic, and up top Giacomo Raspadori, Nicola Zalewski and Nikola Krstovic.

Bologna, also on a probable basis, would line up with Lukasz Skorupski between the posts; Eivind Helland, Juan Miranda, Torbjørn Heggem and Jhon Lucumí in defense; Lewis Ferguson, Federico Bernardeschi, Remo Freuler, Riccardo Orsolini and Tommaso Pobega in midfield; and Santiago Castro leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built from this season's trends, tabs Atalanta as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin:

Expected goals (xG), also our own estimate, back up that forecast: 1.55 for Atalanta against 0.96 for Bologna, for a projected total of 2.51 goals in the match. Those numbers suggest a home side with more attacking firepower, but far from a formality: a nearly one-in-three chance of a draw makes clear this projection settles nothing in advance. It's worth noting this is our own calculation and not a betting house's odds.

With Atalanta looking to confirm its perfect start and Bologna needing to bounce back after an opening defeat, the match at New Balance Arena figures to hinge on who makes the most of the early minutes, precisely the window where both teams tend to show their sharpest scoring form.