Athletic Club hosts Atlético Madrid looking to reverse a rough run

San Mamés hosts a match this weekend with the standings almost turned upside down: Athletic Club, sitting 13th, against an Atlético Madrid team parked in third place. In LaLiga, that's really all you need to know to understand why this matchup matters: one side needs a reaction, and the other arrives to confirm that its start to the season was no fluke.

Athletic has a record of 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses in its 3 matches in the competition, with 3 goals scored and 5 allowed. The recent picture doesn't help either: over its last 5 matches, the club has piled up 4 losses against just 1 win. Worth noting, that short sample includes matches from other competitions and shouldn't be confused with the league record. In this season's LaLiga, home and away combined, Athletic is averaging 1 goal scored and 1.67 allowed per match, with clean sheets in 33% of that 3 game sample; the stretch where it concedes the most goals falls between minutes 16 and 30. Robert Navarro, Aitor Paredes and Alex Berenguer show up as the club's top scorers in that same sample, with one goal each.

Atlético, on the other hand, arrives with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses in its 3 LaLiga matches, with 7 goals scored and 3 allowed: the only team in the competition, along with Alavés and Osasuna, still without a loss among those sharing its 7 points. Over the last 5 matches, the club has racked up 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. In that same season trends sample (3 matches, home and away), Atlético is averaging 2.33 goals scored and just 1 allowed per match, with clean sheets in 33% of those games and its most productive stretch between minutes 76 and 90. Álex Baena shows up as the team's top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, followed by Ademola Lookman and Giuliano Simeone with one each.

In the standings, the gap between the two sides is 4 points, with Atlético sitting in Champions League position and Athletic looking toward the lower half of the table, though with only 3 matches played by each, the standings still don't say much about the real level of either squad.

What the history says

The head to head between the two clubs is evenly split: of 8 matches, Athletic won 4 and Atlético won the other 4, with no draws, and the Basque side has scored 10 goals to the Madrid club's 8. A precedent that shouldn't come as a surprise if this weekend's match also comes down to details.

The probable lineups

With low confidence, projected from recent matches, Athletic could take the field with Unai Simón in goal, a back line of Yeray Álvarez, Yuri Berchiche, Aitor Paredes and Aymeric Laporte, a midfield of Oihan Sancet, Mikel Jauregizar, Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta and Robert Navarro, and Iñaki Williams alongside Gorka Guruzeta up front.

On the visiting side, the projected Atlético lineup would have Jan Oblak in goal, a back line of Dávid Hancko, Robin Le Normand, Jorge Domínguez and Alejandro Grimaldo, a midfield of Ademola Lookman, Koke, Morten Hjulmand, Pablo Barrios and Giuliano Simeone, with Lee Kang-In as the attacking reference point.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, makes Atlético the clear favorite, though it doesn't call the match a sure thing:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line. The 52% for Atlético reflects its stronger start to the season, but the 26% chance of a draw and Athletic's 22% make clear this is far from a sure result, especially with the match at San Mamés. The overall trends also point to a match with goals: a 50% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams find the net.

With those numbers on the table, Athletic needs to reverse a rough run against a rival that arrives unbeaten in LaLiga. San Mamés, at least, always does its part.