Athletic Club and Sevilla meet at San Mamés with opposite goals in mind

San Mamés hosts a LaLiga clash this weekend between Athletic Club and Sevilla, two sides arriving in very different form. While the Basques are desperate to get back to winning ways, the Andalusian side lands in Bilbao sitting comfortably among the top spots in the standings.

How the teams arrive

Athletic is going through a rough patch: over its last five matches it has picked up four losses and a draw, with no wins at all. The team averages 1.16 goals scored per game and 1.10 conceded, modest numbers explained in part by a telling stat: it has kept a clean sheet in just 21% of its matches. Gorka Guruzeta is the club's top scorer with 10 goals, followed by Nico Williams and Robert Navarro with 6 apiece. In the standings, the red and white side has yet to play any matches in its league log, so its current position (10th, with 0 points) doesn't yet reflect anything meaningful about its real level.

Sevilla, on the other hand, arrives with the wind at its back: three wins and two losses in its last five outings, and in its record in the competition it shows one match played, a win, 2 goals scored and 1 conceded. That mark puts the club in fourth place in the table, just 3 points off leaders Alavés. Its attack averages 2 goals per game, though its defense has yet to keep a clean sheet in any match (0%). Peque Fernández and Jon Guridi are its top scorers so far, with one goal each.

Head-to-head history

The matchup has plenty of tradition: in the last 8 meetings, Athletic Club won 4, Sevilla won 2, and there were 2 draws. In terms of goals, the hosts scored 11 to the visitors' 7, a slight historical edge for the Bilbao side that San Mamés tends to reinforce.

Possible lineups

For this match, Athletic could field, in an estimated lineup with low reliability based on recent selections, Unai Simón in goal, a back line of Yeray Álvarez, Yuri Berchiche, Aymeric Laporte and Andoni Gorosabel, a midfield of Iñaki Williams, Mikel Jauregizar, Robert Navarro, Unai Gómez and Íñigo Ruíz de Galarreta, with Gorka Guruzeta leading the attack.

For Sevilla, the probable starting eleven would have Odysseas Vlachodimos in goal, a back line of Gabriel Suazo, Kike Salas, José Ángel Carmona and Andrés Castrín, a midfield of Lucien Agoumé, Oso, Rubén Vargas and Djibril Sow, and a forward pairing of Isaac Romero and Neal Maupay.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' own model gives Athletic Club a degree of favoritism as the home side, though it doesn't rule out Sevilla or a draw outright: all three outcomes carry considerable weight, reflecting an evenly matched game despite the contrasts in recent form. The expected goals also point to a tight contest, with an estimate of 1.5 goals for Athletic and 1 for Sevilla, for a total of 2.5 expected goals. This is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a closed prediction.

With an Athletic side in need of a response in front of its own fans and a Sevilla team looking to confirm its strong start, San Mamés promises a match of contrasts, where the home side's urgency could run up against the visitors' solidity.