Atlanta United Looks to Ride Momentum Against Struggling Sporting Kansas City

Mercedes-Benz Stadium hosts a direct battle at the bottom of the Eastern Conference table as Atlanta United welcomes Sporting Kansas City in MLS action. Neither club is enjoying a strong run in the standings, but both arrive with different motivations to chase three points in a matchup that could shape the rest of their season in the conference.

How Both Teams Arrive

Atlanta United sits in 15th place in the Eastern Conference with 18 points, the product of 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in 20 games played, with 23 goals scored and 35 allowed. Over its last five matches, the home side has picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, closing out that stretch with back-to-back victories that provide some momentum. Offensively, Atlanta averages 1.444 goals scored per game and concedes 1.667, with just 11% of matches ending in a clean sheet, though its most productive stretch comes between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Sporting Kansas City, also sitting 15th in the overall Eastern Conference standings, carries a tighter record: 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in 20 games, with a heavily negative goal difference of 19 scored against 49 allowed. Its recent form is concerning, with just one win, one draw and three losses in the last five matches. The club averages a mere 0.7 goals scored per game against 3.1 allowed, and hasn't posted a single clean sheet all season (0%). Sporting tends to score more in the final stretch, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Up front, Atlanta's main threat is Aleksey Miranchuk, with 5 goals, followed by Tristan Muyumba (4) and Miguel Almirón (3). On the visiting side, Dejan Joveljic is the biggest danger with 8 goals, well ahead of Calvin Harris (3) and Capita (2).

The Head-to-Head Record

Recent history favors Atlanta United: of the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the home team has won 2, there's been 1 draw, and Sporting Kansas City has won once. In total goals, Atlanta has scored 7 to the visitors' 4, a trend that backs up its status as the favorite in this matchup.

Probable Lineups

Atlanta United will likely take the field with Lucas Hoyos in goal; a back line made up of Elías Báez, Júnior Alonso, Tomás Jacob, Matt Edwards and Enea Mihaj; Tristan Muyumba and Cooper Sanchez in midfield; and a front three of Aleksey Miranchuk, Miguel Almirón and Fafà Picault.

Sporting Kansas City, for its part, is expected to line up with Stefan Cleveland in goal; Emir Karic, Jake Davis, Or Blorian and Wyatt Meyer on defense; a midfield of Calvin Harris, Zorhan Bassong, Capita, Lasse Berg Johnsen and Manu García; and Dejan Joveljic as the target man up top. Both lineups are estimates drawn from recent matches, not confirmed starting elevens.

Match Probabilities

The model gives Atlanta United a clear edge at 56%, compared to 20% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. Expected goals figures back up that outlook too: 1.99 for the home side against 1.13 for the visitors, based on an in-house estimate rather than betting odds. On top of that, the trends point to an 84% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match, while only 31% suggest both teams will find the net, pointing to a game with goals but likely just one clear protagonist on the scoreboard.

With Atlanta looking to extend its resurgence and Sporting Kansas City in need of a response after a rough patch, this one promises plenty of scoreboard action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.