Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls: an MLS clash of contrasting needs

Mercedes-Benz Stadium hosts a clash of contrasting needs in MLS as Atlanta United welcome New York Red Bulls. The hosts sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and need points urgently, while the visitors are fighting to hold their spot in the top half of the table at a point in the season when every result matters.

How both teams arrive

Atlanta United are going through a critical stretch: they've managed just 3 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in 18 games played, with 19 goals scored and 33 allowed. Their immediate form is even more worrying, having lost four of their last five matches with one draw and no wins in that span. The home side averages 1.373 goals scored per game and 1.755 allowed, with clean sheets in just 13% of matches, underscoring the defensive fragility that has them sitting 15th in the Eastern Conference.

New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, come in with a much sturdier record on the season: 7 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, with 29 goals scored and 39 allowed. Their recent form shows three wins and two losses in the last five matches, an uneven stretch but still with more victories than their rival. The visitors sit in eighth place, 13 points clear of Atlanta United in the standings, though their defense hasn't been particularly reliable either: they haven't recorded a single clean sheet all season, a striking number for a team in their position in the table.

Head to head history

The recent history clearly favors the visitors. Over the last 8 meetings between the two sides, New York Red Bulls have won 4, Atlanta United have won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is notable too: 13 goals for the visitors against just 7 for the home side in that stretch, a trend that paints a tough picture for Atlanta heading into this match.

Probable lineups

For Atlanta United, whose projected lineup carries a low reliability rating based on available data, the likely eleven features Lucas Hoyos in goal, a back line with Enea Mihaj, Tomas Jacob and Junior Alonso, and a midfield of Elias Baez, Tristan Muyumba, Cooper Sanchez, Will Reilly and Matt Edwards. Up front, Aleksey Miranchuk, the team's top scorer with 5 goals, and Miguel Almiron, with 3, would lead the attack.

New York Red Bulls' probable lineup carries a higher reliability rating, with Ethan Horvath between the posts, a defense made up of Justin Che, Dylan Nealis, Matthew Dos Santos and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, and a midfield of Ronald Donkor, Emil Forsberg and Adri Mehmeti. Up top, the attacking trio would be Julian Hall (the team's leading scorer with 9 goals), Cade Cowell and Jorge Ruvalcaba, who has 7 goals this season.

Match odds

Based on our own estimate drawing on the season's trends, the outlook looks tight despite the gap in the standings:

The 43% figure in favor of the home side is surprising given their current form, but it reflects the fact that they'll be playing at home and that both teams have shown similar defensive weaknesses. It's not an overwhelming edge: the gap with the visitors' 32% is moderate, and a draw, at 25%, remains a real possibility. Expected goals, another of our own estimates, point to 1.86 for Atlanta and 1.60 for New York Red Bulls, a combined 3.46 that supports the trends toward more than 2.5 goals in the match (76%) and both teams scoring (67%).

Looking ahead

With two leaky defenses and attacks that tend to find the back of the net, everything points to an open game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta United need to snap their losing skid against a rival that, despite its own inconsistencies, has dominated the recent head to head between the two clubs.