Atlas looks to keep pace with America as struggling Queretaro visits

Atlas comes in as the second best team in the tournament so far and wants to use home field at Estadio Jalisco to keep pace with America. Standing in the way will be a Queretaro side that hasn't won in several matchdays and needs to turn things around before the standings get away from them. The two meet in Liga MX action, a matchup where the home side starts as the favorite but has no room to relax.

The red and black squad arrives with a record of 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in 5 games played, with 8 goals scored and 5 allowed, numbers that have them in second place with 12 points, just one behind league leader America. Over their last five matches they've picked up three wins, including a stretch of three straight victories after a couple of early losses. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1 allowed per game, and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches. They also tend to strike early: their most productive scoring window is between minute 0 and 15.

Queretaro, meanwhile, sits tenth with 7 points, the result of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 6 allowed. Recent form hasn't helped: in their last five matches they haven't won any, with two draws and three losses, and they arrive off a defeat in their most recent outing. They score 1.2 goals per game and allow the same amount, keeping a clean sheet in just 20% of their matches. Their best scoring stretch comes late, between minutes 76 and 90, which could keep the match open until the final whistle.

The head-to-head history between the two doesn't offer much certainty either: in 8 previous meetings, Atlas won 3, Queretaro won 2 and there were 3 draws, with 15 goals for Atlas against 13 for Queretaro. An even matchup on paper, though this season's standings do show a 5-point gap between the two.

The probable lineups

For Atlas, the projected lineup (medium reliability) would have Camilo Vargas in goal, a back four of Manuel Capasso, Milton Valenzuela, Rodrigo Schlegel and Juan Purata, and a midfield with Edgar Zaldivar, Duk, Victor Rios, Arturo Gonzalez, Luis Esteves and Paulo Ramirez. Zaldivar is their top scorer with 2 goals, followed by Duk and Aldo Rocha with one each.

On Queretaro's side, with a high reliability projection, Guillermo Allison is expected between the posts, a back line of Diego Reyes, Bayron Duarte, Daniel Parra and Lucas Abascia, and a midfield of Santiago Homenchenko, Paulo Victor, Carlo Garcia, Enzo Gimenez and Alex Alcala, with Ali Avila leading the attack. Avila is their top scorer this season with 3 goals, while Homenchenko has added 2.

What the numbers say before kickoff

The model gives Atlas a 42% chance of winning against 26% for Queretaro, with a 32% chance of a draw, so there is a clear favorite here, but not an overwhelming one: there's roughly a one in three chance the point gets split. Expected goals, an in-house estimate, point to 1.27 for Atlas and 0.94 for Queretaro, a combined 2.21 that lines up with the trends: a 50% probability the match goes over 2.5 total goals and a 48% chance both teams find the net. It's worth noting these numbers are a house projection, not a betting line.

With Atlas needing to keep up the pace that has them within striking distance of the leader, and Queretaro desperate to snap a winless streak, Estadio Jalisco has all the ingredients for a match that could come down to the smallest details.