Atlas holds off Puebla's late rally, wins 4-3 thriller at the Jalisco

Monzon opened the scoring with the match barely underway, and nobody at Estadio Jalisco could have guessed there were still six more goals to come. Atlas ended up taking a 4-3 win over Puebla in a match that got complicated, slipped out of its hands at times, and was ultimately decided in its favor on an afternoon full of swings in Liga MX.

The home side could not have started better: before the clock hit the first minute, Florian Monzon finished with his right foot from the center of the box after a cross from Jorge Rodriguez to make it 1-0. But Puebla wasted no time responding. In the 19th minute, Luifer Hernandez rose for a header from close range to tie it at 1-1, the score at halftime after both sides created chances without finding a second goal.

The second half opened with a blow that nobody at home saw coming: in the 59th minute, an own goal by Jorge Sanchez put Puebla ahead 1-2. The match seemed to be tilting toward the visitors, but the home side reacted quickly. In the 62nd minute, Kevin Zenon finished at point-blank range with his left foot off a cross from Luis Esteves to make it 2-2, and five minutes later, Jose Martin connected with his right foot from the center of the box, once again assisted by Zenon, to put Atlas ahead 3-2.

The final stretch started to get difficult for Puebla when Alonso Ramirez picked up a second yellow card in the 77th minute and left his team down to ten men. A minute later, Jose Martin notched his second goal of the afternoon, this time with a header off an Esteves cross that followed a cleared free kick, making it 4-2. The match looked all but decided, but Puebla, even with a man down, still had the strength for one last show of pride: Omar Moreno fired a shot from outside the box into the top corner to make it 4-3 in the 83rd minute, leaving a final stretch with more nerves than Atlas would have liked.

What the numbers say

Atlas controlled possession and was more insistent in attack, something that ultimately showed up in the shot and chance-creation numbers:

According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, Atlas generated 2.053 xG compared to Puebla's 1.213, a gap that confirms the home side was the more dangerous team, even if the final score ended up closer than those numbers suggest.

Beforehand, our model gave Atlas a 52% chance of winning, with a 27% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Puebla win, projecting a scoreline of 1.71 expected goals for the home side against 1.03 for Puebla, a combined total of 2.73. The final result, with seven goals in all, blew past that projection by a wide margin, though the outcome, an Atlas win, was indeed the most likely scenario we had laid out.

What the match leaves behind

With this result, Atlas reaches 24 points from 14 matches played, with a record of seven wins, three draws and four losses, holding onto fourth place in the standings. Puebla, meanwhile, stays at 16 points after 14 matches (four wins, four draws and six losses), sitting in 14th place, eight points behind Atlas. Jose Martin, with his two goals, and Kevin Zenon, with a goal and two assists, were the most decisive players on an afternoon when Atlas had to fight against the tide to walk away with all three points.