Atlas hosts Puebla at the Jalisco as moderate favorite, eager to snap its skid

Atlas arrives at Estadio Jalisco needing to snap a sluggish run, and Puebla looks like the right visitor to try it against: the tournament numbers clearly favor the Rojinegros, but both clubs' recent form tells a less comfortable story than the table suggests. They meet in the Liga MX, and what's at stake is simple: climb out of the slump and move up the standings as the regular season winds down.

Atlas, coached by Hernan Crespo, sits sixth with 21 points on a record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in 13 matches, with 21 goals scored and 23 allowed. Over its last five games, the club has picked up two wins, two draws and a loss, an uneven stretch that leaves it just 2 points behind fifth place. Puebla, meanwhile, sits thirteen points further down the table, in thirteenth with 16 points (4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 13 goals scored and 17 allowed), and is going through an even rougher patch: over its last five matches it hasn't won once, with three draws and two defeats. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 5 points.

It's also worth looking at how each team performs in its usual setting this season, though those numbers come from a different sample than the overall tournament record. At home in the 2026 Liga MX, Atlas averages 1.151 goals scored and 2.006 allowed per match across 7 games, with no clean sheets, and its most productive scoring window falls between minutes 0 and 15. Puebla, on the road in that same 7-game sample, averages 0.854 goals scored and 1.003 allowed, with 43% of its matches ending in a clean sheet against, and tends to score more often between minutes 16 and 30. These are context numbers, not figures from the current tournament standings, but they help illustrate each team's profile depending on where it plays.

The recent head-to-head record also tilts toward the Jalisco side: of 8 matches, Atlas won 5, there were 2 draws and Puebla won just once, with a combined 18 goals for the home side against 11 for the visitors.

Projected Lineups

For Atlas, the projected lineup (medium reliability based on recent call-ups) would have Camilo Vargas in goal; a back line of Milton Valenzuela, Jorge Sanchez, Juan Purata and Adonis Frias; a midfield of Paulo Ramirez, Luis Esteves, Elias Montiel and Kevin Zenon; and up front Florian Monzon alongside Ryan Mmaee. Esteves, in fact, leads the team's scoring chart in the home-form sample with 5 goals, followed by Monzon and Mmaee with 3 apiece.

Puebla, also projected with medium reliability, would field Ricardo Gutierrez in goal; Juan Vargas, Facundo Almada, Fernando Monarrez, Iker Moreno and Jose Pachuca across the back; and a midfield of Brayan Garnica, Alejandro Organista, Mathias Tomas, Alonso Ramirez and Carlos Baltazar. In the road sample, Eduardo Mustre is the top scorer with 3 goals, ahead of Tomas and Almada with 2 each.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Atlas a slight edge, though it doesn't pull away entirely from Puebla:

Expected goals also back up that modest forecast: 1.71 for Atlas against 1.03 for Puebla, an estimated total of 2.73. Those figures point to favoritism without being overwhelming, and the broader trends actually suggest a tight game in terms of scoring: just a 36% chance of going over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams find the net. It's worth noting all of this is EnPelotas' own estimate, not a sportsbook line.

With Atlas pressed to string together results to climb into the upper tier of the standings, and Puebla looking to halt its poor run, Estadio Jalisco promises a match closer than the numbers suggest at first glance.