Augsburg piles on the shots but Union Berlin holds on with ten men for a 1-1 draw

Two red cards, a lopsided shot count and, in the end, a 1-1 result that feels like a fair draw but an odd scoreline to get there. Augsburg were left wanting more after failing to take all three points at the WWK Arena against a Union Berlin side that played a man down from the first quarter hour and still walked away with a point.

Everything went sideways early for the visitors: in the 18th minute, Felix Uduokhai was sent off with a straight red, and Union Berlin had to regroup with ten men for nearly all of the first half and much of the second. The strange twist came when the numbers evened out on the field, as Juma Bah was also sent off for Augsburg in the 62nd minute after a foul. From there, it was ten against ten.

With things level on the field, the goal finally arrived in the 70th minute: Han-Noah Massengo met a cross from Fabian Rieder with a header from the center of the box that nestled into the top right corner. It looked like the logical reward for Augsburg's persistence, having spent the entire match piling up chances. But the celebration lasted barely three minutes: in the 73rd minute, Janik Haberer equalized for Union Berlin with a close-range finish off his right foot, after a direct free kick came back to him. It was a quick gut punch that restored parity to a scoreline the home side statistically deserved to win by a much wider margin.

Dominance that wasn't enough

The numbers tell a story of near-total Augsburg superiority. The hosts racked up 25 shots to Union Berlin's 6, and held the ball 66.3% of the time. Even playing a man short for half the match, Union Berlin managed to hang on and grab a point that, given how the game unfolded, feels like a bonus.

Our own expected goals estimate based on the match's shots also reflects that gap: 2.099 for Augsburg versus 1.138 for Union Berlin. Michael Gregoritsch, Fabian Rieder and Arijon Ibrahimovic kept testing the visiting goalkeeper without finding the second goal that the run of play demanded, and the Union Berlin keeper answered the call when he needed to.

Heading into the match, we had projected a 52% chance of an Augsburg win, 26% for a draw and 22% for Union Berlin, with expected goals of 1.77 for the home side and 1.11 for the visitors. The final result, with points shared, lands closer to the draw scenario we had in mind, though the way the match actually played out, with two red cards thrown in, turned out far messier than any forecast could have anticipated.

What it means in the standings

The draw leaves Augsburg in ninth place with 9 points from 7 games, while Union Berlin stay in 17th with 6 points from the same number of matches, three points behind their opponents on the day. For the Berlin side, grabbing a point in Augsburg while playing more than an hour with ten men is a result that carries more weight than it might seem at first glance. For Augsburg, meanwhile, there's a lingering sense of a numerical advantage that went underused despite the flood of shots.