Bottom-placed Union Berlin host unbeaten Dortmund, the clear favorite

Some matches are already decided by the standings before the ball even rolls, and this is one of them. 1. FC Union Berlin sits dead last in the Bundesliga, 16th with just 4 points through five matchdays, while Borussia Dortmund arrives in hot pursuit of the leaders, second with 13 points, just two behind top spot. The gap between the two sides is 9 points in the table, and the Stadion An der Alten Försterei is set to host a game with plenty on the line for the home side: ending the freefall.

The Berlin club carries a record of one win, one draw and three losses in the league so far, with just 5 goals scored and 17 allowed, the worst goal difference in the entire Bundesliga. Over its last five matches it has posted three losses, one draw and one win, closing out that stretch with a victory that at least stops the bleeding. At home this season, Union Berlin averages 1.667 goals scored and 2 allowed per game, keeping a clean sheet just 33% of the time, a sample of only three matches that points to a fragile defense even on its own turf.

Dortmund, meanwhile, arrives unbeaten: four wins and a draw through five matchdays, with 11 goals scored and just 4 allowed. The recent form backs that up too, with three wins, one draw and a single loss in its last five outings. Its Bundesliga numbers this season, combining home and away matches, show an average of 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 allowed per game, with a 60% clean sheet rate across a sample of five matches. These are the kinds of numbers that explain why Dortmund is fighting near the top of the table.

A history that weighs heavy

The head-to-head record offers little hope for the home side either: in 8 meetings, Union Berlin has won 2 and Dortmund 6, with no draws. The goal difference is even more telling: 4 for Union against 24 for Dortmund across those matchups.

Likely lineups

With low reliability according to our own estimate, Union Berlin could field a lineup with Frederik Rønnow in goal, a back four of Tom Rothe, Zeno Van den Bosch, Felix Uduokhai, Leopold Querfeld and Josip Juranovic, a midfield of Rani Khedira, Michel Aebischer, Woo-yeong Jeong and Aljoscha Kemlein, and Emmanuel Latte Lath leading the line.

On the visitors' side, with medium reliability, Niko Kovac could stick with Gregor Kobel in goal, Waldemar Anton and Joane Gadou at the back, and a crowded midfield featuring Daniel Svensson, Maximilian Beier, Joey Veerman, Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha and Julian Ryerson, supporting Serhou Guirassy and Konstantinos Karetsas up front.

What the numbers say

Our model shows a clear edge for Dortmund, though it doesn't completely rule out the home side:

The estimated expected goals are 1.06 for Union Berlin and 2.18 for Dortmund, a combined total of 3.24 that lines up with a 63% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 100% probability of both teams scoring, according to our trend data. This is our own model's estimate, not a betting line.

With a Dortmund side that tends to attack best in the final stretch (frequently scoring between minutes 76 and 90, based on its home and away trends) and a Union Berlin defense that concedes easily, this match looks like it could open up as the clock ticks on. The question isn't so much whether Dortmund can win, but whether Union Berlin can grab something that helps it climb away from the bottom of the table.