Bottom-placed Union Berlin look to stop the bleeding against surging Elversberg

The Stadion An der Alten Försterei hosts a matchup that looks like a clash of contrasting needs: 1. FC Union Berlin, last in the table with just 1 point, are looking to stop a stream of conceded goals, while SV 07 Elversberg arrive in seventh place, a step away from the European spots, aiming to keep climbing the Bundesliga standings.

Union Berlin's numbers paint a rough start: so far this season they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with just 4 goals scored and 17 allowed. That minus-13 goal difference explains their 17th-place standing. Their last five matches haven't been much better: one win, one draw and three losses. Beyond this competition, and just as a reference for their overall form in this season's Bundesliga (four matches, home and away combined), the Berlin club is averaging 1 goal scored and 4.25 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and their most productive scoring window comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Tim Skarke stands out as their top scorer in that sample with 2 goals, followed by Emmanuel Latte Lath and Leopold Querfeld with one each.

Elversberg, on the other hand, arrive in a different mood. Their record in the competition is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 8 goals scored and 7 allowed, and those 7 points place them in the upper half of the table, just 6 points behind Union Berlin according to the standings. Their recent form backs up that solid image: three wins, one loss and one draw in their last five matches. In that same sample, outside of the Bundesliga 2026, playing both home and away, Vincent Wagner's side is averaging 2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, with 25% of matches ending in a clean sheet, and they tend to strike early, within the first 15 minutes. Maurice Krattenmacher leads that group with 3 goals, ahead of David Mokwa with 2 and Cole Campbell with 1.

Likely lineups

Mauro Lustrinelli could stick with much of Union Berlin's usual lineup, though the reliability of this projected XI is low: Frederik Rønnow in goal, a back line with Tom Rothe, Leopold Querfeld, Josip Juranovic and Felix Uduokhai, a midfield of Rani Khedira, Aljoscha Kemlein, Michel Aebischer, Livan Burcu and Woo-yeong Jeong, and Emmanuel Latte Lath leading the line up front.

On Elversberg's side, the projected lineup carries more confidence and largely repeats the side from recent rounds: Nicolas Kristof in goal, Jan Gyamerah, Maximilian Rohr, Lasse Günther and Lukas Pinckert on defense, Lukasz Poreba, Lukas Petkov, Cole Campbell, Felix Keidel and Francis Onyeka in midfield, with David Mokwa up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

This is an in-house estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The 40% figure for Elversberg makes them a modest favorite, but it doesn't rule out Union Berlin: there's still a 34% chance for the hosts and a 26% chance of a draw, numbers that don't point to a lopsided gap. Expected goals also point to an open, high scoring game: 1.5 for Union Berlin and 1.64 for Elversberg, a combined 3.14 that lines up with an 88% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals. The chance of both teams scoring drops to 38%, suggesting that if the scoreline opens up, it could tilt more toward one side than split evenly between both.

With Union Berlin desperate for points and Elversberg riding the momentum of their strong form, the Stadion An der Alten Försterei promises a match in which the home defense will once again be put to the test.