Azerbaijan dominate possession 74 percent but cannot break down Liechtenstein

Twenty five shots, 74.4 percent possession and 672 passes were not enough for Azerbaijan to take home all three points. The hosts ran into Liechtenstein's resistance time and again, and the match finished 0-0 at Tofik Bakhramov Stadium in the UEFA Nations League, Group D2.

The story of the match wrote itself from the opening whistle: Azerbaijan set up camp in the opponent's half and never left. Inside the first minute, Vusal Isgandarli tested the goal with a shot that was blocked off an assist from Mahir Emreli, and that pattern held for the entire first half. Mahmudov and Musa Qurbanli both strayed offside by pushing too far up against the defensive line, a sign of just how often the home attack was pressing into the box. Mahir Emreli was the most persistent threat, trying his left foot, then a header, then his left foot again before the break, but none of it found the target.

The visitors, with Jonas Weissenhofer and Jens Hofer committing foul after foul to break up the rhythm, could barely muster a response. Their only real warning in the first half came from Alessandro Lo Russo, whose shot was blocked. It was 45 minutes of siege without reward, and the sides went into the break level at 0-0.

In the second half, Azerbaijan came out with two changes, Aleksey Isayev and Rufat Abbasov entering the match, and kept to the same script: more shots, more corners, more insistence. Rufat Abbasov, Abdulla Khaybulayev and Mahir Emreli again all had chances, with a shot from Emreli himself skimming just wide in the 64th minute. Liechtenstein defended with discipline and, when they could, looked to hit on the counter: that was how Fabio Luque-Notaro's chance in the 61st minute and Alessio Hasler's in the 67th came about, both without luck. Yellow cards for Kenny Kindle, Lars Traber, Alessio Hasler, Mahir Emreli and Toral Bayramov reflected just how tense the match became as the minutes ticked by with the scoreboard frozen.

What the numbers say

Azerbaijan's dominance on the field showed up clearly in the stat sheet, though their efficiency told a different story:

Our xG estimate based on the match's shots puts the figure at 2.153 to 0.243 in the home side's favor, a gap that confirms the territorial dominance but also explains the underlying problem: with just one recognized big chance in the entire match, Azerbaijan piled up volume without the finishing edge needed to turn it into a goal.

The result also runs counter to much of what we projected before kickoff, when we gave Azerbaijan a 71 percent chance of victory against just 7 percent for the visitors, with a draw priced at 22 percent. The pre-match expected goals figures, 1.88 for the hosts against 0.46 for the visitors, pointed toward a home rout that never arrived: the draw, precisely the least likely outcome in our numbers, ended up being the final result.

How the group stands

In the Group D2 standings, Azerbaijan have 2 points from 2 matches played, with two draws and no wins or losses yet, while Liechtenstein sit on 1 point, the product of a draw and a loss in their 2 outings. The gap between the two in the table is just 1 point, with Lithuania leading the group on 4 points. It is a point that will taste bitter for Azerbaijan after such a dominant performance, while for Liechtenstein, it is a point gained away from home that they will gladly take.