Brighton hosts Bologna in preseason friendly with the Seagulls as favorites

The American Express Stadium hosts a preseason clash between two clubs gearing up for their respective league campaigns: Brighton and Hove Albion welcomes Bologna in a game slotted into the Club Friendlies calendar. For both sides, the fixture is a chance to gauge where their squads stand before the games that actually count get underway.

How the two teams arrive

Brighton opened its preseason slate on solid footing, winning its only recorded match in the competition by a commanding 3-0, without conceding a goal. That said, zooming out to the wider sample of its last five matches, the south coast club has posted two wins and three losses, an uneven run that tempers the optimism from the most recent result. Danny Welbeck stands as the team's top scorer with one goal, and the side has tended to look sharpest in the opening 15 minutes of matches.

Bologna, for its part, arrives with a steadier recent form: two wins, two draws and just one loss in its last five outings. Santiago Castro leads the attack with two goals, backed by Jonathan Rowe and Thijs Dallinga with one each. The Italians tend to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes, a pattern suggesting a team that needs a few minutes to settle into rhythm before doing damage.

Likely lineups

With moderate confidence based on available data, Brighton could field Bart Verbruggen in goal, with a back line of Ferdi Kadioglu, Jan Paul van Hecke, Mats Wieffer, Olivier Boscagli and Lewis Dunk. In midfield, Pascal Gross, Jack Hinshelwood, Yankuba Minteh and Carlos Baleba could feature, with Danny Welbeck leading the line up top.

On Bologna's side, with a lower estimated confidence level, the likely back line would be made up of Eivind Helland, Juan Miranda, Jhon Lucumi and Joao Mario, joined in midfield by Remo Freuler, Lewis Ferguson and Tommaso Pobega. Up front, the Italian side could line up Santiago Castro, Federico Bernardeschi, Jonathan Rowe and Riccardo Orsolini, a versatile attacking quartet.

Match probabilities

According to our in-house model, Brighton enters as the favorite, though without an overwhelming edge over its opponent.

The 52% given to the English side reflects a bit of home advantage, but the 23% assigned to Bologna, combined with the 25% chance of a draw, makes clear there's no decisive edge on paper. As for expected goals, our projection puts the total at 3.19, split between 1.93 for Brighton and 1.26 for Bologna, numbers that point to a match with scoring chances for both sides. It's worth noting these figures come from our own projections and are not sportsbook odds.

What's ahead

With Brighton looking to confirm its perfect start and Bologna arriving with more consistency in its play, the match at the American Express Stadium promises to be tight, with a slight tilt toward the home side based on the trends gathered so far.