Colombia favored over Paraguay in friendly that tests both projects

Colombia and Paraguay face off at Sports Illustrated Stadium in an International Friendlies matchup that serves as a check-in for both national teams. There's nothing at stake beyond form and feel, but with Nestor Lorenzo and Gustavo Alfaro testing out personnel, there's plenty to watch for.

Colombia arrives off a draw in its only friendly of the season, with one goal scored and one allowed. Across its last five matches, a sample that mixes different competitions, Colombia has two wins and three draws, with no losses. This is a team that isn't losing, but also isn't quite closing out games: a streak of draws stands out as its main recent trait.

Paraguay, on the other hand, opened its year of friendlies with a decisive win: two goals scored and none allowed in its only match. Over its last five outings, it has two wins, two draws and one loss. Those numbers are tighter than Colombia's, but with one notable detail: in that 2026 friendly used as reference, Paraguay kept a clean sheet, with Miguel Almiron front and center after scoring both goals in the match. Worth flagging, though, that figure comes from a sample of a single match combining home and away conditions, not the team's overall record.

On Colombia's side, that same kind of trend points to Luis Suarez as the top scorer in that specific sample, with a goal in the opening stretch of the match (between minutes 0 and 15). These are context numbers, useful for understanding where each team's threats might come from, but they shouldn't be confused with the team's overall balance.

What the history says

The head-to-head record strongly favors Colombia: of the 4 matches played, Colombia has won all four, with 7 goals scored against just 2 allowed to Paraguay. It's a sizable gap that weighs on morale, though obviously it doesn't play the friendly by itself.

Probable lineups

For Colombia, the projected lineup, rated high reliability based on recent starting frequency, would include Camilo Vargas in goal, a back line with Jhon Lucumi, Davinson Sanchez, Daniel Munoz and Johan Mojica, a midfield with Gustavo Puerta, Jefferson Lerma and Luis Diaz, and up top Jhon Arias, James Rodriguez and Luis Suarez.

Paraguay, with medium reliability in its projection, could field Orlando Gill between the posts, a back four with Gustavo Gomez, Juan Jose Caceres, Omar Alderete and Junior Alonso, a midfield with Andres Cubas, Diego Gomez, Miguel Almiron and Matias Galarza, and Julio Enciso as the main attacking reference.

What the model projects

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives Colombia a 46% chance of winning, 37% for a draw and 17% for a Paraguay win. These numbers mark Colombia as the favorite, but without ruling out a draw, which remains a very real possibility.

Worth noting that these expected goals figures are our own estimate, not an official number, and the whole table reflects an internal calculation rather than betting odds. With that picture, Colombia comes in as a moderate favorite, though with no room to relax: Paraguay arrives unbeaten in its friendly played so far and with a recent record that holds its own.

The friendly is set up more to test each project than to settle anything, but between Paraguay's unbeaten run and Colombia's historical dominance, there's enough here to watch closely.