Columbus Crew look to snap losing skid against surging New England Revolution

Four straight losses is a streak that weighs heavy, and Columbus Crew carries it into a matchup against a team from the top half of the table. Columbus Crew opens the doors of ScottsMiracle-Gro Field to New England Revolution in an MLS clash pitting two very different realities against each other in the East standings.

The home side sits 15th in the East group, with a record of 5 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in 21 matches, 30 goals for and 36 against. Its immediate form is even rougher: over the last five games it has managed just one draw and four losses, without a single win. Columbus averages 1.302 goals per game on offense while conceding 1.092, with clean sheets in only 30 percent of matches. Wessam Abou Ali is the club's top scorer with 5 goals, and the team's most productive stretch comes between the 31st and 45th minutes.

New England Revolution sits fourth in the same group, with 10 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, 33 goals for and 26 against. Its recent form has been up and down: a draw, two losses, a win and another draw over its last five matches. Offensively the Revolution average 1.213 goals per game, though the defense has been leakier than usual, conceding 1.657 goals per game with clean sheets in just 11 percent of matches. Carles Gil leads the attack with 7 goals, followed by Dor Turgeman and Alhassan Yusuf with 5 apiece. New England's best scoring window comes early, between the 16th and 30th minutes. The gap between the two clubs in the standings is 14 points, a reflection of how differently their seasons have gone.

The head-to-head history clearly favors the home side: of 8 meetings, Columbus Crew has won 4, there have been 2 draws, and New England Revolution has won 2, with Columbus outscoring the Revolution 15 goals to 7 overall.

Probable Lineups

For Columbus Crew, the projected lineup, rated medium confidence, would have Patrick Schulte in goal, a back line of Malte Amundsen, Steven Moreira, Sean Zawadzki and Cesar Ruvalcaba, a midfield of Taha Habroune, Tarun Karumanchi, Dylan Chambost, Mohamed Farsi and André Gomes, with Brais Méndez as the attacking focal point.

For New England Revolution, with high confidence in the projection, Matt Turner would start in goal, with Matt Polster, Mamadou Fofana, Will Sands and Ethan Kohler across the back. The midfield would feature Peyton Miller, Carles Gil, Alhassan Yusuf, Brooklyn Raines and Jack Harrison, with Dor Turgeman up top.

What the Numbers Say

Our model calculates the odds for this match, and while the home side is favored, the gap isn't overwhelming.

The breakdown makes Columbus Crew the relative favorite at 48 percent, but a draw and a road win share the same 26 percent, suggesting a tighter match than the standings gap would imply. Expected goals put the projected scoreline at 1.82 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors, a combined 3.15 goals that backs up the trends: a 58 percent chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 62 percent chance both teams find the net. This is our own model's estimate, not a betting line.

With Columbus Crew in need of a statement result to snap its slide and New England Revolution looking to cement its spot near the top of the table, ScottsMiracle-Gro Field is shaping up for a game with goals in it and nothing settled in advance.