Down to 10 men, Chicago Fire rally to beat New York City FC 2-1

Playing with 10 men for nearly the entire second half, Chicago Fire turned the game around down the stretch and came away with a 2-1 win over New York City FC at Soldier Field, in an MLS match that got complicated before halftime and that Chicago resolved with two sharp tactical strikes late in the clock.

The script seemed written for New York City FC. In the 18th minute, Hannes Wolf connected on a cross from Agustin Ojeda and finished with his right foot from the center of the box, curling it into the top corner for the 0-1 lead. And what was already shaping up to be a tough afternoon got even harder for the home side in the 42nd minute, when Dje D'Avilla picked up a second yellow card for dangerous play, leaving Chicago Fire with 10 men before the break, which ended with the visitors on top.

The response with a man down

Instead of sitting back, Chicago Fire came out stronger in the second half. The equalizer arrived in the 54th minute: a cross from Maren Haile-Selassie into the box, headed home by Anton Saletros into the top corner for 1-1. The match opened up from there, with chances at both ends, until Haile-Selassie struck again in the 86th minute, this time as the scorer, a low right-footed shot from the center of the box that found the inside of the left post for the final 2-1 that sealed the win for Chicago Fire.

The stats reflect a close contest, with New York City FC controlling the ball a bit more but Chicago Fire making the most of the game's momentum when it counted:

New York City FC created more clear-cut chances, four to Chicago Fire's one, and also topped its rival in the match's estimated xG: 2.154 to Chicago Fire's 1.515, according to our post-match calculation based on shot data. In other words, the home side won with less volume of generated danger, something explained in part by Haile-Selassie and Saletros delivering at just the right moments, even while playing a man down from the first half.

The preview we published ahead of the match gave Chicago Fire a 46% chance of winning, with 27% for a draw and 27% for a visitor's win, with expected goals of 1.71 for the home side and 1.26 for the visitors. The final result, 2-1 for Chicago Fire, ended up matching the favoritism that projection indicated, though the path to get there, a red card in the 42nd minute and falling behind on the scoreboard, was far more chaotic than any number could have predicted.

What it means in the standings

In the Eastern Conference, the win puts Chicago Fire in second place with 48 points, 15 points clear of New York City FC, who remain in ninth place with 33 points. For Chicago Fire, it was an afternoon of making do with just enough; for New York City FC, confirmation that creating chances isn't always enough when the opponent shows up in the moments that matter most.