Croatia and England Battle to Keep Pace with Spain in Nations League

Croatia and England arrive level on three points in Group A3, each carrying the same record: one win and one loss so far in the UEFA Nations League. Their clash at Stadion HNK Rijeka plays out in the shadow of Spain, which sits atop the group with a perfect record, meaning neither side wants to fall any further behind.

Current Form

Slaven Bilic's side has one win and one loss in the competition so far, with 3 goals scored and 5 allowed. Over their last five matches they've gone three wins and two losses, an uneven stretch that includes a recent stumble. England, under Thomas Tuchel, show the same group record of one win and one loss, though with a better goal difference: 4 scored against 3 allowed. Their last five outings also add up to three wins and two losses, swinging between good and bad results without finding real consistency yet.

It's worth a quick look, just as a point of reference from a different context, at what both sides produced at the 2025 World Cup: Croatia averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game in that sample, with 25% of matches ending in a clean sheet, and their most productive stretch came between the 31st and 45th minutes. England, in that same tournament, averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, with 29% clean sheets and the same peak scoring window, the closing stretch of the first half. Those numbers come from a different competition, but they help paint a picture of each team's attacking profile, with names like Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane standing out as England's top scorers in that sample, and Ante Budimir, Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic among Croatia's scorers.

History Doesn't Favor the Hosts

The head to head record doesn't do Croatia any favors either: of the 4 matches played between these two, England won 3, one ended in a draw, and Croatia has yet to win any, with a combined goal tally of 7 to 3 in England's favor.

Possible Lineups

Croatia, with medium reliability in this projection, could line up with Dominik Livakovic in goal and a midfield built around Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic, alongside Petar Sucic and Martin Baturina, while the backline may feature Josko Gvardiol, Josip Sutalo, Josip Stanisic and Marin Pongracic. For England, with lower reliability in this estimate, the likely XI includes Harry Kane leading the attack alongside Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and Declan Rice, with Marc Guéhi anchoring the defense.

What the Numbers Say

Our model lists England as the favorite, though without an overwhelming margin:

England's 53% marks a clear edge, but not a crushing one: 47% is split between a draw and a Croatia win, so the match is far from decided on paper. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. The expected goals figures back this up: our projection has Croatia at 1.55 and England at 2.25, for a combined total of 3.81 that lines up with the match's overall trends, with an estimated 69% probability of more than 2.5 goals and 86% likelihood that both teams find the net.

With that set of numbers, everything points to an open match with goals at both ends. Croatia needs points to stay in the group race, and England will look to confirm its status as favorite against a head to head record that already smiles on them.