Spain, 78% favorite, visits a struggling Croatia in the Nations League

Twelve goals allowed in three matches. Carrying that burden, Croatia hosts Spain at the Stadion Poljud in a Group A3 clash in the UEFA Nations League that looks lopsided on paper. Slaven Bilic's Croatia needs to right a tournament that started poorly, while Spain arrives as the only team in the group with a perfect record.

The tournament numbers tell the story: Croatia has one win and two losses in three matches, with 3 goals scored and 12 conceded. Over its last five matches, the sequence reads two wins and three losses, an inconsistent run that has yet to settle. Spain, on the other hand, has won all three of its tournament matches (10 goals scored, 4 conceded) and arrives on a streak of five straight wins in its last five outings.

In the Group A3 standings, Spain leads with 9 points from 3 matches played, Croatia sits third with 3 points, and the gap between the two sides in the table is 6 points. It's worth separating this from another sample that shouldn't be mixed in with the tournament: at the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away, Spain averaged 1.75 goals scored and just 0.125 conceded per match, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of its games, while Croatia scored 1.5 and conceded 1.75 per match in that same competition. Those figures come from a different tournament, but they paint a picture of the contrasting form between the two sides.

What the head to head says

The history between the two teams doesn't favor the hosts either: in 8 matches, Spain has won 5, there has been 1 draw, and Croatia has won twice, with a combined 22 goals for La Roja against just 9 for the Croatians.

Probable lineups

For Croatia, the projected XI (medium confidence) features Dominik Livakovic in goal, a back line with Ivan Perisic, Josip Stanisic, Josko Gvardiol, Marin Pongracic and Josip Sutalo, and a midfield led by Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Petar Sucic and Martin Baturina. On the Spanish side, the probable lineup (high confidence) has Unai Simon in goal, a back line with Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi, Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro, a midfield of Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo, and an attacking front of Lamine Yamal, Alex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal, who also stands out as the top scorer in the World Cup sample with 5 goals.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model leaves little room for doubt in this particular matchup:

There's no technical coin flip here: the 78% in Spain's favor is a clear lean, a direct reflection of how both teams arrive at this match. Our model's expected goals back up that reading, with 0.75 for Croatia against 2.72 for Spain (3.46 total), and the calculated trends point to a 56% chance of more than 2.5 goals and an 86% chance of both teams scoring. These are our own estimates, not betting odds, but they suggest a match that could be open in terms of goals even with a clearly identified favorite.

Croatia has the advantage of playing at home and the need to pick up points to avoid falling further behind in the group. Spain, perfect so far, has every chance to extend its lead at the top. Poljud will tell whether the numbers hold up or whether Bilic can pull off the statement win his team needs.