England demolishes Croatia 7-0 in Rijeka to assert itself in the Nations League

Seven goals, one team doing all the scoring, and just 7 minutes before England got on the board: that's how quickly things were settled at Stadion HNK Rijeka. The final score, Croatia 0, England 7, is the kind that doesn't need much explanation, but it's worth telling how a rout of this size came together in the UEFA Nations League.

Harry Kane opened the scoring in the 7th minute with a right-footed finish from the center of the box that found the top corner, after a through ball from Jude Bellingham. Less than 15 minutes later, Bellingham himself tapped home from close range to make it 0-2, set up by Anthony Gordon. And before the first half reached the half-hour mark, Gordon returned the favor with a header for 0-3, finishing off a cross from Jarell Quansah. Croatia was still trying to find a response when, in first-half stoppage time, Bukayo Saka finished from close range to make it 0-4. The two sides went into the break with that scoreline, and by then the match was effectively decided.

The second half brought no relief for Croatia. Kane struck again in the 52nd minute for 0-5, this time assisted by Elliot Anderson. Saka completed his brace in the 67th minute with another finish into the top corner, making it 0-6. The scoring was capped in the 86th minute by Morgan Rogers, who came on as a substitute and finished left-footed by the post after a through ball from Bellingham, who ended up handing out assists all over the field.

A gap that showed up in the numbers

The stats confirm what was plain to see on the field: England dominated comfortably in possession, shots and clear-cut chances.

The shots on target number, 1 against 10, sums up the match pretty well: Croatia barely threatened, while England kept creating chance after chance. In our own xG estimate calculated from the shots taken in the match, England finished with 5.864 against Croatia's 1.081, a gap that confirms the scoreline wasn't a fluke or the product of an especially lucky night in front of goal.

What stands out is how far this strayed from our pre-match projections. There, we gave England a 53% chance of winning, with 25% for Croatia and 22% for a draw, and we projected a scoreline close to 1.55 goals for the visitors and 1.55 for the hosts, with a total projected of 3.81 goals. Reality ended up nearly doubling that figure, with a thoroughly one-sided match that no pre-kickoff projection could have precisely anticipated.

What it means for the Group A3 standings

In Group A3, England now sits on 6 points from 3 matches played (2 wins, 1 loss), while Croatia remains on 3 points after the same number of matches (1 win, 2 losses). Croatia's goal difference, already negative, plunges to -9, a direct reflection of the beating in Rijeka. Spain, not involved in this match, remains the group leader with a perfect record.

For Croatia, managed by Slaven Bilic, there's now the task of digesting a night to forget at home. For England, under Thomas Tuchel, the result reflects a team effort: Kane and Saka with two goals each, Bellingham and Gordon also among the scorers, and Rogers closing out the tally moments after coming off the bench.