Crvena Zvezda hosts Hapoel Be'er Sheva as clear favorite in bid for revenge

Rajko Mitic Stadium hosts an appealing clash between two teams that have avoided defeat in recent games and share just one previous meeting on record: Crvena Zvezda will be looking for revenge against Hapoel Be'er Sheva, the club that won the only head to head matchup between the two so far.

How the two teams arrive

Crvena Zvezda is going through a strong stretch of its season. In its league record it has played 3 matches, winning 2 and losing 1, with a wide goal difference of 9 for and just 1 against. Its attacking output has been impressive, averaging 3 goals scored per game while conceding only 0.333, which works out to a clean sheet in 100 percent of its matches. Over its last five games overall (a different sample than its league record), the club has posted 4 wins and 1 loss, with Marko Arnautovic and Bruno Duarte its top scorers, both with 2 goals, followed by Osman Bukari with 1. The Serbian side tends to do most of its damage between the 46th and 60th minutes.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva also shows a solid balance in its league record: 3 matches played, 2 wins and 1 loss, with 4 goals for and 2 against. Its scoring average sits at 1.333 goals per game while conceding 0.667 on average, and it has yet to keep a clean sheet in any match (0 percent). Over its last five games, the sequence shows three straight losses followed by two wins, a finish that points to a recent uptick in form. Zahi Ahmed leads the way with 2 goals, joined by Kings Kangwa and Amir Ganah with 1 apiece. Interestingly, the Israeli club also produces most of its scoring between the 46th and 60th minutes, setting up what could be an intense second half.

Head to head history

The history between these two clubs is minimal: just one match played, which went in Hapoel Be'er Sheva's favor, 1 to 0. There have been no draws or wins for Crvena Zvezda in this fixture, so the head to head carries little statistical weight, though it does give the home side extra motivation.

Probable lineups

With low reliability, since this is an estimate based on recent matches rather than an official lineup announcement, Crvena Zvezda could field Matheus in goal, a back line of Seol Young-Woo, Nayair Tiknizyan, Milos Veljkovic and Strahinja Erakovic, a midfield of Mirko Ivanic, Mohamed Abu Fani, Loizos Loizou, Timi Max Elsnik and Vasilije Kostov, with Bruno Duarte leading the attack.

On the visiting side, Hapoel Be'er Sheva's likely starting eleven would have Ofir Marciano between the posts, with Miguel Vitor, Guy Mizrahi and Matan Baltaxa across the back, Lucas Ventura, Niv Yehoshua, Kings Kangwa and Eliel Peretz in midfield, and an attacking trio of Igor Zlatanovic, Zahi Ahmed and Javon East.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' model gives a clear edge to the home side, with a 60 percent chance of victory compared to 15 percent for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, leaving 25 percent for a draw. The expected goals figures, also an in-house projection, back up that reading: 1.83 for Crvena Zvezda against 0.83 for the visitors, for a combined total of 2.66. It's worth noting these numbers are a projection based on season trends, not a betting line or a locked in forecast. Additional trends point to a game with goals on both sides: both the over 2.5 goals market and the both teams to score market show up at 100 percent in the data analyzed.

With a home side arriving in strong form on both ends of the pitch, and a visiting team climbing back after a rough patch, the match at Rajko Mitic Stadium promises intensity, especially in the second half, the stretch where both teams tend to decide their games.