Hapoel Be'er Sheva Stuns Crvena Zvezda With Commanding Road Win

Hapoel Be'er Sheva made a statement at Rajko Mitic Stadium, beating Crvena Zvezda 2-0 in a result that left the home side without answers and ended with one of its players sent off in the closing stretch. Neither goal came until the second half, but once they did, they completely changed the shape of the match.

A Scoreless First Half and a Second That Settled Everything

The first half ended without incident on the scoreboard, 0-0, though not without some tension: in the 22nd minute, Itay Rotman picked up a yellow card for dangerous play, and the referee added three minutes of stoppage time to the opening period. Crvena Zvezda's coach made changes right at the start of the second half, bringing on Marko Arnautovic and Mohamed Abu Fani in search of a more attacking version of his team.

But it was Hapoel Be'er Sheva that struck first. In the 61st minute, Igor Zlatanovic finished with his right foot from the center of the box, off an assist from Javon East, to make it 0-1. The home side tried to respond with the introductions of Mirko Ivanic and, later, Muhammed Cham, but the script of the match had already been written by the visitors. In the 79th minute, Javon East, this time on the finishing end, struck with his right foot from the center of the box for the 0-2, assisted by Eliel Peretz. The goal sealed the outcome and left Crvena Zvezda with no room to salvage the result.

The closing stages brought one more twist: in the 92nd minute, with substitutions already used up on both sides, Mohamed Abu Fani was sent off for fighting, an episode that summed up the home side's frustration in a match that had completely slipped away from them.

What the Preview Projections Said

The preview for this match had projected a very different scenario from the one that actually unfolded. Our model gave Crvena Zvezda a 60% chance of winning, compared to 15% for Hapoel Be'er Sheva and 25% for a draw. In terms of expected goals, the pre-match estimate was 1.83 for the home side and 0.83 for the visitors, for a projected total of 2.66. Reality completely contradicted that forecast: the team that entered as the heavy favorite not only failed to win, it failed to score, while the visitors, given little chance beforehand, walked away with all three points in commanding fashion.

Substitutions and Bench Management

Both coaches used up all their options in the second half. Crvena Zvezda shook up its attack with Arnautovic, Ivanic, Cham and Katai, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva rotated defensive and attacking pieces as the scoreline allowed, bringing on Kna'an, Abu Rumi, Diop, Davidzada and Ohana. None of these changes managed to turn the tide for the home side, which ran into an opponent that was organized and lethal in the box.

With this result, Hapoel Be'er Sheva walks away with a heavyweight road win, built on the efficiency of its two clearest chances in the second half. For Crvena Zvezda, the night leaves more questions than answers: an attack that couldn't find the net, a defense that conceded two nearly identical goals from the center of the box, and a late red card that only deepens the sting of defeat at Rajko Mitic Stadium.