De Bruyne steers Belgium to a resounding 3-0 win over Turkey in the Nations League

Kevin De Bruyne needed just nine minutes to tilt the match in Belgium's favor: a right-footed finish from the middle of the box made it Belgium 1, Turkey 0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. The midfielder wasn't done there, and before the night was over he had notched a brace, with Romelu Lukaku adding the finishing touch. The final score read 3-0 for Belgium in a Group A1 UEFA Nations League clash that carried plenty of weight for both sides.

The opener was a moment of individual brilliance: De Bruyne finished from the center of the box after a pass from Dodi Lukebakio. Turkey answered with intensity, particularly through Arda Guler, who tried his luck again and again from outside the box without finding the net. There were stretches, especially in the first half hour, where the Turkish side actually created more going forward than Belgium, with shots from Baris Alper Yilmaz, Oguz Aydin and Guler himself forcing Senne Lammens into action. But the scoreline held, and the first half ended with Belgium clinging to the narrowest of leads.

In the second half, De Bruyne struck again: in the 58th minute he doubled the lead with a right-footed strike from outside the box that found the top left corner, set up by Youri Tielemans. It was the blow that began tilting the match decisively in Belgium's favor. Dodi Lukebakio had given a warning shot earlier when he rattled the crossbar. Turkey, with substitutes Yunus Akgun, Ilhan Fakili and Deniz Gul coming on, kept pushing down the flanks and created clear chances, but their finishing let them down time and again.

The third goal came in the 75th minute, with Lukaku, on as a substitute, tapping home a ball squared by Charles De Ketelaere following a cleverly worked set piece. It was the finishing blow in a match that, despite the lopsided scoreline, was far from a stroll for Belgium in terms of actual play.

What the numbers say

The stats confirm that Turkey was no passive opponent. In fact, the visitors racked up more shots and more corners than the home side, though Belgium was more precise and controlled more of the possession.

The xG calculated after the fact based on the match's shots actually slightly favors Turkey, with 1.778 against Belgium's 1.486, a reflection of the chances the visiting side created but couldn't convert. Belgium's efficiency, scoring three goals from just three well-placed shots, ended up making the difference against a team that shot more often but with far less accuracy.

The preview numbers had been clear: our projection gave Belgium an 80% chance of winning, against a 14% chance of a draw and just 6% for a Turkish win, with expected goals of 2.86 for the home side and 0.76 for the visitors. The final result ended up matching that forecast fairly well, even if the scoreline came out a bit more lopsided than the back-and-forth flow of play in several stretches might have suggested.

What it means for the group standings

With this result, Belgium moved to 6 points in Group A1, with two wins and a loss in three matches played, now 6 points clear of Turkey, who remain without a single point after losing all three of their outings. France leads the group with 7 points, with Italy third on 4, though neither side was in action tonight. For Turkey, the upcoming fixtures grow more urgent by the day; for Belgium, the lopsided win confirms that Mark van Bommel's side remains among the top contenders in the group.