Dovbyk saves Bologna with stoppage-time equalizer in wild 2-2 draw against Sassuolo

There was barely a minute left on the stoppage-time clock when Artem Dovbyk popped up in the middle of the box to make it 2-2 at the Renato Dall'Ara. Bologna had made things difficult for itself all night, but the club found an equalizer that felt like both too little and a lot at once: Sassuolo was left watching a win that had been all but sealed for much of the second half slip through its fingers.

The match, part of the Serie A schedule, opened with Sassuolo striking first. In the 18th minute, off a counterattack, Josh Doig finished with his left foot from the middle of the box to make it 0-1. Bologna had created chances before that goal, with Cambiaghi testing the keeper a couple of times from outside the box, but it was the visitors who capitalized on the space behind the home defense to get ahead.

The first half ended with Sassuolo holding onto that slim lead, though not without a scare of its own: Kieron Bowie forced a save right before the break. Bologna, for its part, went into the locker room feeling it deserved more, a feeling later backed up by the possession and shot numbers.

The comeback and the second-half storm

Bologna came out for the second half with three fresh faces, and the changes paid off almost immediately. In the 49th minute, Roberto Piccoli headed home a cross from Juan Miranda off a corner kick to make it 1-1. The joy was short-lived: just six minutes later, in the 55th minute, Vasilije Adzic finished with his right foot from the middle of the box to put Sassuolo back in front, 1-2. With that second blow, the match seemed headed toward a visiting win that held up for more than half an hour, even as Bologna kept pushing and creating chances that wouldn't find the net.

The equalizer finally came in stoppage time. In the 90th minute, after a shot from Marco Libra was saved, Dovbyk pounced on the rebound and buried it with his left foot to make it 2-2. The celebration earned him a yellow card, but the point was already secured for Bologna.

What the numbers say

Bologna's dominance in possession and overall volume of play was clear, though it didn't translate into more clarity in front of goal until the very end.

Based on our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Bologna generated 3.07 expected goals to Sassuolo's 1.72, a gap that backs up the sense that the home side deserved more than a draw, even if the final result ended up shared.

Our preview published before the match gave Bologna a 49% chance of winning, 28% for a draw, and 23% for a Sassuolo win, with expected goals of 1.58 for the home side and 1.00 for the visitors. The final result, with four goals split between the two teams, blew well past that projection of 2.58 total goals, and the draw, the second most likely outcome according to our model, is exactly what happened, though by a far bumpier road than any percentage could have predicted.

What the result means

For Bologna, the point snaps a run of poor results and comes after a second half in which the team had to fight the scoreboard twice. For Sassuolo, on the other hand, there's the sting of having let a lead slip that felt secure right up until the final gasp of the match, on a night when both sides find themselves looking up at the table from the lower half, separated by just three points.