Athletic Club Host Surging Alavés in Basque Derby With No Clear Favorite

San Mames welcomes a clash between table neighbors this weekend, with both sides carrying mixed form into the game. Athletic Club sit ninth with 7 points, and Alavés are close behind in sixth with 10, just 3 points ahead of them in the LaLiga standings. There is no room to relax: both teams need points to keep pace with the upper half of the table.

Edin Terzic's side arrive with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the 5 matches they have played in the competition, scoring 7 goals and conceding 6. Their form over the last five games has been up and down: two losses to start, followed by two straight wins and a draw in their most recent outing. At home in LaLiga this season, in a small sample of just 3 matches, they average 1.667 goals scored and 1.333 conceded, with a 33% clean sheet rate, and tend to do most of their damage between the 46th and 60th minutes. Robert Navarro, with 2 goals, and Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet, with one each, stand out as the main attacking threats in that sample.

Alavés, meanwhile, boast a better record in the competition: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6 matches, with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their last five games show a draw and two wins to open, but they have since dropped two in a row, a trend worth watching. Across their season sample in LaLiga (6 matches, both home and away) they average 1.83 goals scored per game and just 1 conceded, with a 33% clean sheet rate and their strongest scoring window between the 76th and 90th minutes, typical of a team that pushes hard late. Lucas Boyé (4 goals) and Mariano Díaz (3) are their most frequent scorers in that sample.

What the history says

The head-to-head record between these two clearly favors Athletic Club: of the 8 matches played, the Basque side won 5, Alavés won 2 and there was 1 draw, with a combined 12 goals for Athletic against 5 for Alavés. It is context, not a guarantee for this Sunday, but it carries weight in the memory at San Mames.

Probable lineups

With reliability rated as medium, Athletic Club could line up with Unai Simón in goal, a back four of Laporte, Yeray, Yuri Berchiche and Areso, and a midfield of Sancet, Gerenabarrena, Ruiz de Galarreta, Navarro and Nico Williams, with Iñaki Williams as the focal point up top. This lineup is drawn from recent matches, not confirmed.

Alavés, with a high reliability rating on their projected XI, look set to field Sivera in goal, Tenaglia, Koski and Jonny Otto in defense, and a midfield of Ángel Pérez, Abde Rebbach, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez and Denis Suárez, while Lucas Boyé and Toni Martínez could pair up front.

What the numbers say

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

No outcome clears 40%, so calling this a clear favorite would be a stretch. Expected goals reflect that same balance: 1.32 for Athletic Club and 1.13 for Alavés, for an estimated total of 2.45. This is our own projection based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Two more figures round out the picture: a 58% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and an 83% chance both teams find the net, pointing to a game with scoring chances at both ends.

With those numbers on the table, San Mames is set for a match with no clear favorite, one where the recent head-to-head record and Alavés' strong attacking form run up against Athletic Club's home tradition in this fixture.